323
FXUS65 KBOU 021802
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1102 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry today, with near-critical fire weather conditions
  across the Palmer Divide.

- Mountain snow and low-elevation rain likely (>70% chance) tonight
  into Tuesday evening, favoring areas north of I-70.

- Potential for colder storm system with more widespread snow
  Thursday night through Friday, although uncertainty in amounts
  remains.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 1132 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

After the slightly cooler day we had Sunday, Monday is going to
warm back up and potentially even come for the record high.
Southwesterly winds will bring warmer air into the area, raising
highs into the 60s to low 70s for Monday afternoon. The current
forecast for DIA is 72 degrees, the current record for March 2nd
is 74 degrees (set in 2022). The south/southwest winds are
expected to form a cyclone near the Denver area for the afternoon.
Areas near and south of I-70 could gust around 20 to 30 mph for a
few hours in the afternoon, with much weaker winds in areas
to the north of the cyclone. With min RHs right around 15%, we
could see elevated to near critical fire weather conditions in
areas near the Palmer.

Models continue to trend a bit further north with Tuesday`s system
than what they were showing a couple of days ago. Precipitation
chances still look promising for the mountains and confidence in
precip in the northern plains is still pretty high. However, confidence
in precip for our southeastern counties (Lincoln County area) has
lowered. A cold front will push through the area early Tuesday as
a surface low moves to our southeast. Temperatures will be much
cooler behind the front, with highs forecast to drop around 20 degrees
for much of the plains from Monday to Tuesday. Precipitation type
should be primarily rain in the plains. We could see some
rain/snow mix, but no snow accumulation is expected at this time.
The most likely precip amounts for the plains will be around 0.1
to 0.3 inches. However, we could see some activity that`s more
convective in nature. Areas under this activity will have a better
chance at seeing higher amounts (closer to half an inch or more),
but it`s too far out to predict the exact locations of these
higher amounts. In the mountains, we`re looking at snow totals
more in the 2 to 7 inch range, with the highest amounts in the
higher elevations of the northern Front Range and Park Range.
Mountain top lapse rates look pretty good, with values around 7 to
8 C/km at times. This could lead to occasional periods of heavy
snow and difficult driving conditions in the mountains Tuesday.

Temperatures will warm back up into the 60s for Wednesday and
Thursday, before our next system knocks the temperatures back down
for Friday. An upper level trough will approach the area late
Thursday into Friday. A strong cold front will move through early
Friday, dropping temperatures significantly and leaving breezy winds
behind. Winds will blow from the north/northeast on Friday, with
gusts around 30 to 40mph. Forecast highs for Friday are in the
40s, but there are a few ensemble members that keep highs in the
30s. There`s still quite a bit of uncertainty on exact timing and
precip amounts. We can say, we have high confidence in mountain
snow and winter driving conditions up there late Thursday through
Friday and lower confidence in impacts for the plains. Right now,
accumulations look light (if there are any at all) in the plains.
We have a low chance (<30%) of seeing snow accumulations over an
inch for much of the lower elevations. However, the chance for an
inch of snow or more does increase as you go from the urban
corridor into the Palmer Divide. Precip chances should come to an
end early Saturday, with temperatures warming into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 1102 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

Winds have turned to more W-NW to start off this TAF, although
indications are muddled for any clear trends through 21Z-00Z since
mixing has been limited by a high cloud deck. We have seen a
stronger W-SW component push across KAPA, but with lack of
organized heating the wind fields may just turn more N-NW (60-70%
chance) and stay lighter through most of the afternoon, or even
become VRB at times (30% chance). KBJC would have the best
opportunity (50-60% chance) of gusty WNW winds to ~25 kts, while
KDEN and KAPA any gusts should stay under 20 kts, even if we do
mix better. The signals for any clear direction through this
evening are even more uncertain, so we`ve opted for a few hours of
VRB winds until the first surge of a front occurs (toward
06Z-08Z) when winds should turn more northerly. A stronger
frontal surge is likely by 15Z-16Z Tuesday, with a higher
certainty that we`ll see stratus and MVFR ceilings developing by
then. The stratus deck will have support from increasing shower
coverage and narrower T/Td spread to the north, combined with a
weak upslope component developing. That stratus deck will be hard
to erode with continued N-NE flow through the day and showers
becoming more widespread - enough to go TEMPO -RA for the
afternoon hours. We think the most likely range for ceilings will
be in the 1200-2000 ft range for most of the day, although a
slight chance (20-30%) that ceilings briefly drop to 1000 feet
depending on extent of showers.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...20