809
FXUS65 KBOU 261840
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1240 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier Thursday through Sunday with warming temperatures and only
  isolated late day showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Showers and storms have formed this afternoon (Wednesday) with
the strongest storms near the Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide.
Across the Denver metro, cloud cover and cooler temperatures are
responsible for keeping the showers and storms quite weak. There
may be weak storms that form over the metro later this afternoon
but they are not expected to be severe.

Across the Palmer Divide, moderate instability has lead to strong
storms to develop but they are struggling to reach severe limits
due to the lack of deep layer shear. A storm or two could reach
severe limits in Elbert and Lincoln Counties but the majority of
storms will stay below severe limits there. In Weld County near
the Cheyenne Ridge, there are a couple of strong to severe storms
forming. There are stronger 500-300 mb winds in far northern
Colorado which is providing better deep layer shear close to 40
knots. Given moderate instability with mixed-layer CAPE around
1,500 j/kg, storms in the Weld and Morgan Counties may become
briefly severe with large hail the primary concern. Later this
afternoon, storms will likely congeal into a line/MCS and heads
towards the far northeast corner of Colorado. High resolution
model guidance is in good agreement that this MCS will pose a
severe wind threat especially in Logan, Sedgwick, and Phillips
Counties. These storms will also produce heavy rain and it is
possible the far northeast corner sees localized flooding. QPF and
PoPs were increased over the northeast corner this evening.

Over the next few days, mid to upper level heights will increase
over Colorado with upper level temperatures increasing as well.
There will be zonal flow and drier air moving in aloft so the
chance for storms will be around 10 percent. The only day of the
next three days that may see organized convection is on Friday
near the eastern Colorado/Nebraska border. Some weak surface
convergence may be enough to generate a line of storms. These
could pose a severe threat in Sedgwick and Phillips Counties.
Otherwise, high temperatures will increase each of the next three
days with the mid 90s expected across the plains on Saturday.

A low level cold front will move across the area Sunday afternoon.
This will likely cool temperatures a tad on Sunday and with
northeast, upslope winds increasing the chance for storms. Some of
these storms could be strong to severe. Monday will also be cooler
with a chance of storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday/...
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Light winds
today expected to increase out of the southeast in the late
afternoon. Recent high resolution model runs have been more
consistent in showing showers over the terminals this evening.
While these are unlikely to impact the terminals, it is possible
that wind gusts up to 25 knots occur. There will be normal
drainage flow tonight and light winds Friday morning. In the
afternoon on Friday, storms to the southeast of Denver will likely
push an outflow boundary through that has moderate southeast
winds with gusts up to 30 knots.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Danielson
AVIATION...Danielson