196
FXUS65 KBOU 031143
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
543 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dry period of weather will commence today and continue through
  most of the upcoming week with temperatures getting above
  seasonal normals from Monday onward.

- Increasing fire danger is expected in Jackson and Grand Counties
  this upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Drier air has spread eastward over much of the area today with
precipitable water values under 0.75 (in) pushing readings at or
below normal. A shortwave trough is moving across the area and is
triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms. The drier air is
leading to MLCAPE of about 500 J/kg. The storms will be higher-
based and are expected to produce gusty outflow winds with brief
moderate to heavy rain. DCAPE values are 1000-1500 J/kg, so gusty
winds will continue to be the main threat with a few gusts of
50-60 mph. A surface trough/dry line runs roughly from Limon to
Sterling. East of this line, moisture increases with dew points
into the upper 50s to lower 60s. MLCAPE is 1500-2500 J/kg with
30-40 knots of bulk shear (0-6km). This should produce a few
strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening. The showers
and storms linger into the evening hours as the shortwave
continues to provide lift. By midnight, most/all of the showers
and storms should have ended.

A weak cold front pushes south through the area Sunday morning.
This will bring slightly cooler temperatures and drier air.
Precipitable water values fall to 50-80 percent of normal. A few
of the hi-res models show isolated storms over far northern and
eastern Colorado where a little better moisture may reside. Will
have some low PoPs in the forecast for this, otherwise expect dry
conditions.

The upper level high to the south builds northward over the
Central Rockies Monday. Temperatures climb into the lower to mid
90s across northeast Colorado. Airmass dries more with
precipitable water values 40-70 percent of normal. Some low level
moisture hangs on over far eastern Colorado. However, soundings
show it should be very shallow. Will keep the mention for storms
out of the forecast for Monday over far eastern Colorado, but
can`t totally rule out a strong late day storm.

With the high firmly overhead for Tuesday and Wednesday, highs
will be in the mid 90s to lower 100s. Dry air will remain over
Colorado with only a slim (less than 15% chance) for a
strong/severe storm over far eastern Colorado if there`s enough
low level moisture.

For Thursday through Saturday, the upper level high weakens and
drifts south as a large upper level tough moves over the Pacific
Northwest and Northern Rockies. There`s some difference on how
quickly the high exits the area, which isn`t surprising this far
out. Thursday is expected to stay very warm and possibly into
Friday as well. As the highs drifts south, we should see a gradual
increase in moisture by Friday and Saturday (possibly Thursday
according to the ECMWF). This should bring at least high-based
showers and storms back to the area with better moisture possible
for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday/...
Issued at 540 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Models show weak northerly winds at DIA by 15Z this morning. The
northerly winds eventually become more easterly late in the day,
with drainage winds expected by 04Z-05Z late this evening. There
will be no ceiling issues.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meier
AVIATION.....rjk