984
FXUS65 KBOU 262206
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
306 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and dry for Thanksgiving and Friday.

- First taste of winter weather this weekend, with light snow
  likely Friday night and into Saturday morning.

- Second round of snow for the mountains Sunday with snow
  possibly spreading east onto the urban corridor and plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 228 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

Water vapor shows a trough over the panhandle of Nebraska. This,
along with northwesterly flow aloft, is creating some snow showers
in the northern mountains and virga showers across the far
northeast plains. Minimal snow accumulation is expected in the
mountains and the snow will come to an end this evening.

A ridge aloft will be directly over Colorado on Thanksgiving which
will lead to a mild and dry day. Mostly sunny skies are expected
with a high in the mid 50s in Denver. With light winds, it will be
a pleasant day.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Wednesday/...
Issued at 228 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

West-northwest flow aloft will prevail Thursday night and Friday
ahead on an upper level trough approaching from the Pacific
Northwest. This will result in mild and dry conditions through
Friday. Thursday night should be quite mild as mostly cloudy skies
will limit the radiational cooling. The cloud cover moves off to
the east Friday morning with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies
expected during the day Friday. We will see one more warm day
Friday with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s across northeast
Colorado. Surface low pressure forms over eastern Colorado during
the day Friday. This is expected to lead to increasing west winds
for the mountains and foothills. Some of these gusty west winds
will spread eastward onto the next by plains. Winds don`t look too
strong at this time with gusts to 40 mph possible.

The upper level trough travels southeast across Wyoming and
northern Colorado Friday night and Saturday morning. A cold will
also accompany the trough bringing to coldest air so far this
season with highs for Saturday and Sunday in the upper 20s to mid
30s. This system will be quick moving and somewhat moisture
starved, leading to light snowfall amounts (up to 2 inches).
There`s still a slight chance the snowless streak for Denver
continues if the trough doesn`t dig as far south as the
operational models show. A good number (~50%) of the 00Z GFS
ensemble members keep Denver dry for this first system. However,
about 80% of the 12Z GFS ensemble members show light snow (~1 inch
or less) for Denver. Most of the ECMWF members (greater than 80%)
show snow for Denver. Chance for snowfall comes to an end
Saturday morning as the upper level trough shifts east of the
region.

A second upper level trough drops south-southeast out of the
Pacific Northwest across the Great Basin and Four Corners region
on Sunday. Snow is expected across western and central Colorado,
beginning Sunday morning and linger into Sunday night. There`s a
chance for snow east of the mountains as well Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. This will depend on the track of the upper
level trough.

The weather pattern across the western part of North America
doesn`t change much for the first part of next week. We will see
drier weather return and temperatures warm up a little as westerly
flow aloft prevails ahead of the next upper level trough
traveling south- southeast from the Pacific Northwest. This may
bring snow as early late Tuesday to the mountains with a better
chance for snow with this system Tuesday night and into Wednesday.
Still a considerable amount of uncertainty with this system as it
is a week away. Given the possible path, it will be similar to
the other expected systems with light snowfall accompanying it.
This system could track too far west of the area to bring
snowfall, but should bring another shot of cooler/colder air to
the region for the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday/...
Issued at 1132 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. Winds will be
light and variable for the majority of the day today. Typical
diurnal wind patterns will occur tonight.

It appears a DCVZ will setup on the east side of Denver tomorrow.
This will likely keep winds out of the north at BJC and DEN. APA
winds will be difficult to forecast but may end up being light and
variable.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Danielson
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...Danielson