381
FXUS65 KBOU 101114
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
514 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today and
  Saturday, mainly across the higher terrain.

- Near normal temperatures with chances for showers Sunday into
  early next week, though confidence in the weather pattern is
  low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 344 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Mid and high level moisture continue to gradually increase from
the west, but low levels remain fairly dry except for richer
moisture right along the eastern border. This will likely hinder
any rain from weak convection in the early to middle parts of the
day. Forecast has been updated for better timing of PoPs, with a
gradual increase in the mountains through early afternoon,
with low PoPs reaching the I-25 corridor later in the day, and
mainly overnight on the plains. Also a bit more cloud cover
sooner.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 330 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Current satellite and radar shows clouds building over the higher
terrain with light rain showers, as moisture increases ahead of
an approaching system. Isolated showers will continue through the
evening, mainly for the higher terrain. However, can`t rule out
light showers spilling onto adjacent plains. Have increased PoPs
this evening.

Broad southwest flow aloft will dominate the region on Friday and
Saturday as an upper level low in the Pacific Northwest pushes the
500-mb ridge eastward. Moisture from the remnants of Hurricane
Priscilla will be advected into Colorado, with PWAT values above
the 90th percentile and 200-300% of normal. The bulk of the
precipitation will stay southwest of our CWA, as the mountains to
our southwest will block most of the moisture advection. However,
scattered showers are expected throughout both days across the
higher terrain, with a few rumbles of thunder in the afternoon.
700-mb temps will stay above 0 dg C, supporting snow levels above
10K ft.

For the plains, the best chance of precipitation will be late
Friday afternoon/evening and Saturday morning. Increasing
southwest flow aloft from an embedded shortwave will provide
enough forcing for light isolated to scattered showers. In terms
of temperatures, expect daily highs to be 5-8 degrees above
normal this weekend. A few short range models indicate Friday`s
high temperatures to be in the high 70s. However, with the
expected increase in cloud cover, have kept temperatures in the
low to mid 70s.

By Sunday, the upper level low will weaken and move eastward as
flow aloft turns more westerly. With cross-barrier flow, gusty
winds up to 50 mph and orographic rain/snow are possible along
the higher terrain. For the plains, a cold front will traverse the
area in the afternoon, bringing cooler temperatures behind it for
Monday.

For the rest of next week, broad southwest flow aloft will return
as another upper level low develops in the Pacific Northwest.
There is still a wide variability in ensemble solutions in terms
of track and intensity. However, guidance has been trending
towards the low staying west of our area, due to a ridge building
over the southern United States. If this trend continues, above
normal temperatures will be expected next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday/...
Issued at 510 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR through tonight. Isolated showers/storms are expected after
21z, with a 20% chance of variable winds gusting to 25 knots.
There is some uncertainty about wind direction at KDEN, with a Denver
cyclone boundary likely this afternoon. Either a wind shift from
this boundary or shower outflow will likely result in a period of northerly
winds at KDEN sometime after 19z, more likely after 21z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gimmestad
DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...Gimmestad