061
FXUS65 KBOU 231113
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
413 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds from 50 to 60 mph today over the higher east slopes
  of the Front Range.

- A few winds gusts from 60 to 70 mph will occur in some areas of
  the mountains and foothills tonight. Current probability of a
  few gusts exceeding 75 mph is in the 20 to 30 percent range.

- Above normal temperatures expected through next week.

- 50+ mph wind gusts expected across the Front Range and foothills
  Monday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
Issued at 244 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

WNW flow aloft will be over the area today and tonight as a sfc lee
trough is along the front range.  Cross-sections show minimal mid
and high level moisture thru the aftn so don`t expect much in the
way of clouds. Meanwhile, will continue to see gusty winds today
over the higher terrain and near the foothills. Gusts have been
mainly in the 50-60 mph range early this morning, although a few
spots have had a few higher gusts. It will also be windy over the
plains near the WY-NE border area as well. As for highs, 850-700
mb temps rise a few more degrees so expect highs in the upper 50s
to lower 60s over the plains with a few locations reaching the mid
60`s.

For tonight, main concern is potential for high winds over the
higher terrain and near the base of the foothills.  Some of the hi
res data have a decent mtn wave developing late this evening and
overnight, with cross barrier flow increasing to 50-55 kts.  On the
other hand, other higher res models don`t show much of a mtn wave
with cross barrier flow in the 40-45 kt range.  Output from DESI has
highest probability of winds to 70 mph mainly over the higher
mtns, with probabilities from 30-40 percent in some foothill
areas after midnight. For now will hold off on a watch as I`m not
sure about areal coverage as most winds gusts may stay below 70
mph. Finally, cross-sections show moisture affecting the Park
Range late tonight which may lead to some light snow, thus have
increased pops in that area.


&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Issued at 244 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

Not much has changed for the forecast as we are still expecting a
warm and relatively dry week ahead of us. Broad ridging aloft
will dominate the region, with westerly downslope winds allowing
temperatures to get up to the 60s almost every day.

On Monday morning, there could be lingering snow showers, mainly in
the northern mountains. However, with limited moisture available,
any accumulations will be light. For the plains, while temperatures
will be about 15 degrees above normal, we don`t think any records
will be broken. The Denver record high for February 24th is 71
degrees (set in 1995), but we expect the high temperature to be 65
degrees. The main highlight of the day is the wind potential. There
is a 60% chance of 60+ mph wind gusts along the Front Range
Mountains and foothills, mainly on Monday morning. The plains have a
55% of 40+ mph wind gusts across the northern/northeastern plains.

Tuesday will be another warm and breezy day with an approach of an
upper level shortwave trough. Light mountain snow showers are
expected during the day. Widespread 30+ mph wind gusts are
possible across the plains, with the Front Range/foothills seeing
slightly stronger wind gusts. There could also be isolated
elevated fire weather conditions across the northern plains as
gusty winds and relative humidty values in the high teens could
support fire danger for grasslands. However, given recent
precipitation making fuels less susceptible to combustion, we do
not need fire weather highlights.

A cold front associated with the shortwave will pass Tuesday
night, leading to a brief cool down Wednesday where temperatures
across the plains will be in the 40s/50s range. Winds will
increase behind the cold front, creating another day of widespread
wind gusts of 35+ mph. Ridging will build back up, allowing
temperatures to warm up to the 60s again through the weekend.

Looking ahead, models are in agreement of a system moving through
Colorado sometime early next week. Cooler temperatures are expected
with this system, along with precipitation chances. However, it may
be too warm for snow on the plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday/...
Issued at 408 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

Winds basically stayed WSW overnight and never did go SSW. Will
keep winds WSW at APA and DIA thru the morning and then have them
more westerly by 21z. At BJC they have been gusty westerly all
night and will keep them gusty thru the aftn.

For tonight winds will be WSW at APA and DIA. BJC will continue to
have periods of gusty west winds at times possibly up to 40 mph.
Otherwise VFR conditions will continue today and tonight.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...Ideker
AVIATION...RPK