Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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760 FXUS65 KBOU 181141 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 541 AM MDT Fri Oct 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Much cooler temperatures today and Saturday. - Likely to widespread precipitation this evening into Saturday morning, with snow in the mountains. - Scattered to likely precipitation Saturday afternoon into Sunday...with snow in the mountains. - A few inches of snow expected in most of the mountains, with heavier totals south of I-70. - Dry and warmer for all the forecast area Monday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/... Issued at 350 AM MDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Currently, radar shows light 20-30 dBZ showers for parts of the high country this morning. Additionally, a few METARs show winds shifting north as the cold front enters northeastern Colorado. A cooler airmass should bring much lower temperatures compared to yesterday. Breaks in partly cloudy skies for the plains will allow some daytime heating where afternoon highs between 53-66F are possible across the plains. Mountains and valleys drop to 38-55 this afternoon. As the upper level trough digs deeper into western portions of Colorado, a plume of mid-level moisture will lead to scattered to numerous showers over northeastern Colorado starting late afternoon. Weak instability exist in the foothills and plains thus an isolated thunderstorm or two could occur late afternoon hours through early evening but majority of areas should receive rainfall this evening. Temperatures should drop quickly where a few mountain areas transition to snow. This update includes a slight decrease to NBM QPF values in the mountains leading to an overall decrease in snowfall amounts due to a delay in showers this morning. Snowfall totals through tonight should remain 1-3 inches for areas above 9 thousand feet. Also NBM QPF falls in agreement with models for areas east of the Divide could receive 0.10-0.40 inches of rainfall overnight with highest totals along the Palmer Divide and Lincoln county. The upper low will stall in the Four Corners providing consistent moisture and weak synoptic forcing which keeps showers mainly south and along I-70 after midnight tonight. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/... Issued at 350 AM MDT Fri Oct 18 2024 The stationary upper-level low positioned over Arizona is expected to remain in place through Saturday. As daytime heating progresses throughout the morning, snow showers over the southwest Front Range Mountains, and Mosquito Range are expected to transition to rain as snow levels raise back up towards 10,000 feet. Temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 50s for Saturday`s high across the plains and mountain valleys, putting us roughly 5 to 10 degrees below normal for a change. Due to our proximity to the low, we will have a chance for light rain showers throughout the day, with light snow showers possible above 10,000`. By early Sunday morning, snow totals are expected to be less than 1" below 10,000 feet, with the exception of Park County where 1-4" will be possible down to 9,500 feet. The greatest accumulations are expected in the Mosquito Range above 11,000 feet, where close to a foot is expected. Totals will decrease as you move north across the Front Range Mountains. Sometime Sunday, the low is expected to lift northeast across Colorado. As it traverses the area, light precipitation can be expected with localized areas of heavier rainfall, mainly ahead of the vorticity max, though exact placement of this feature is unclear at this time. There will be enough moisture wrapping around the backside of the low to bring another wave of mountain snow showers, this time more focused on our northern mountain ranges, with snow levels expected to stay above 9,000 feet. Light accumulations are expected with the highest elevations seeing up to 3" of additional snowfall Sunday through Monday morning. By Monday afternoon, above normal temperatures will return with 70s expected across the plains. Warm and dry conditions are expected through the week as ridging persists over the western CONUS once again. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday/... Issued at 541 AM MDT Fri Oct 18 2024 VFR conditions are possible until 01Z this evening. There is potential for lower cloud decks this morning but there is low forecast confidence if those clouds will arrive KDEN and KBJC. Decided to delay the timing of low clouds instead of removing the potential chance between 14-18Z. Scattered showers will develop late this afternoon and cloud coverage shifts from SCT to BKN and wind speeds increase between 10-13kts. Winds should remain north through the evening. By late evening, there is potential for IMC where cloud decks lower near 8-6k feet. While a few showers may linger, it is possible for fog north of all terminals if showers decrease in coverage into Saturday morning. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AD LONG TERM...Bonner AVIATION...AD