429
FXUS65 KBOU 112012
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
112 PM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mountain snow will continue through Thursday morning. Hazardous
  mountain travel is expected for this evening and tomorrow
  morning.

- Chance (<40%) of light rain showers over the plains Thursday and
  Friday.

- Mostly dry and above normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 105 PM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

Snow is ongoing across the Park Range and Front Range early this
afternoon. Most areas are seeing light snow, however there are
pockets with snowfall rates around an inch an hour. Lapse rates at
mountain top are forecast to increase to around 6 to 7 C/km for this
afternoon, so there is potential for heavier snow rates as we go
into the mid afternoon. Snow is expected to continue, with
occasional breaks, in the mountains through early Thursday morning.
Westerly winds will decrease Thursday morning, weakening orographic
lift. This combined with weak QG subsidence late Thursday
morning/Thursday afternoon will lead to more sporadic snow showers
and lower Pops in the mountains. Models are showing a weak back door
cold front moving through the area on Thursday. We could see some
weak upslope flow and surface convergence with this front, leading
to low end precip chances in the plains. However moisture in the
plains will be lacking near the surface, so amounts look very low.
It`s also important to note that temperatures and wet bulbs in the
plains will likely be too warm for snow, so any precip the plains
see will be light rain. Accumulations in the mountains will most
likely be in the 6 to 15 inch range, with the potential for higher
amounts in the higher elevations of the Park Range.

The trough currently located off the West Coast will move
south/southeast over the next 2 days. As it approaches we could see
some weak lift ahead of the trough Friday into Saturday. Pops
increase for the mountains and the plains for Friday afternoon into
Friday night as trough moves east. The best chance for precip will
remain to our south, where the low is, but we could see some light
precip with this system. For the mountains, the most likely
additional snowfall is around a trace to 2 inches. For the plains,
it will once again be too warm for any snowfall accumulation, but we
could see some light rain showers (particularly in our southern
counties).

Once the trough moves off to the east, we`ll be back under an upper
level ridge this weekend, with highs reaching into the upper 60s for
portions of the plains by Monday. However, another upper level
disturbance is expected late Monday into Tuesday. This weak
disturbance, combined with some lift from the left exit region of
the upper jet could be enough to trigger some additional snow showers
in the mountains. The plains will likely remain too dry for any
precip. In fact, we`re actually monitoring Tuesday for critical fire
weather conditions in the plains. A surface low is forecast to
develop to our north Monday into Tuesday, dragging a cold front
through the area early Tuesday. Behind the front, we`ll see strong
west winds and RHs dropping into the 10% to 20% range across the
plains in the afternoon, leading to fire weather concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday/...
Issued at 1053 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions will occur through at least 18z Thursday. There is
a scattered mid-level cloud deck at BJC that we expect to be in
place for most of the period. Currently, winds are light and
variable at all 3 sites. RRFS soundings show that the inversion currently
in place will mix out in the early afternoon. This will lead to
winds out of the northwest at DEN and APA, but not as strong as
at BJC. Winds will be out of the west at BJC and gusting to near
20 to 25 KTS. Overnight, winds will become variable once again
and then drainage at APA and DEN. Winds will be variable
throughout the night at BJC before becoming NW tomorrow morning.

By late morning into the early afternoon tomorrow, we have
introduced a PROB30 at DEN to account for a low chance of rain
showers. As a result, ceilings could lower to near or below 6000
feet. By mid-to-late afternoon tomorrow, winds at DEN will become
northwesterly once again.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Thursday for COZ031.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Thursday for COZ033-034.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...MV