130
FXUS65 KBOU 040541
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1141 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday
  afternoon and evening.

- Slow warming trend into the weekend, with chances for showers
  and storms each day through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible
through mid evening. Most/all of the showers and storms are
expected to form over the higher terrain where it will be unstable
and then drift eastward. Patchy drizzle will be possible in/near
the foothills due to the easterly upslope flow. Drier air moves in
overnight bringing the rain threat to an end.

Longwave upper trough will remain over the western half of the
country through Friday. Each day through Friday, we see a
shortwave trough push through the region, bringing mainly
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. For Wednesday, with
some sunshine tomorrow, temperatures climb into the lower to mid
70s across the Front Range and nearby plains. Clouds hang on most
of the day over the far northeast corner, where it will be cooler.
A Denver cyclone forms and creates a convergence line from the
Palmer Divide northeastward to just east of DIA. Here, MLCAPE
reaches 600-1000 J/kg. This instability combined with decent shear
could produce strong to severe thunderstorms. The best chance for
these stronger storms will be across Douglas, Elbert, and Lincoln
Counties. Lift from the shortwave trough arrives late afternoon
and into the evening hours. Given the expected track of the
shortwave the best chance for showers and storms will be across
the central and southern parts of the area.

For Thursday, we`ll see a similar set up with a shortwave trough
embedded in the westerly flow aloft producing scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. MLCAPE will generally range
500-1000 J/kg so can`t rule out a couple storms just reaching
severe criteria, but most storms are expected to be sub-severe.
Highs take a small step back with temperatures reaching the mid
60s to lower 70s.

On Friday, another shortwave trough will trigger scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Not much change in
temperatures with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s over north
Colorado. MLCAPE looks to be a little less, up to 600 J/kg.

For the weekend, an upper level ridge begins to build over the
western states. This will bring warmer temperatures for the
weekend with highs topping 80 degrees across the lower elevations
on Sunday. There will be a decrease in showers and thunderstorms,
with the lack of large scale forcing, but isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and
evening hours, mainly across the higher terrain.

On Monday and Tuesday, the ridging over the region weakens,
though temperatures look to stay near normal. We continue to see
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. No well defined
features on the models at this time to think we will see more than
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday/...
Issued at 1138 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Stratus is expected to continue through most of the overnight
hours tonight, with VFR likely returning by sometime Wednesday
morning. Current ceilings are fairly variable across the I-25
corridor but have generally been around 025-035. Exception has
been BJC where there`s been lower cigs and also some DZ/BR, though
this shouldn`t last for too much longer.

Fairly uncertain forecast for most of Wednesday, with a weak
Denver cyclone lifting northeast out of the metro during the
morning hours, followed by some northeast/east again by the
afternoon. If we can sufficiently destabilize, scattered
SHRA/TSRA would be possible during the mid/late afternoon into the
evening, but guidance has backed away a bit from that solution.
As a result have replaced the TEMPO at DEN/BJC with a PROB30, but
kept the TEMPO at APA where confidence is a little higher.
Guidance also hints at stratus redeveloping Wednesday night, with
a return to MVFR/IFR conditions possible near or after 06z
Thursday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meier
AVIATION...Hiris