901
FXUS65 KBOU 052323
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
Issued by National Weather Service Pueblo CO
423 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light snow showers for the mountains through
  Friday, with a shot of moderate snow Friday night. Chance of
  light snow for the weekend with a better chance of
  accumulating snow early to mid next week.

- Temperatures will cool off to below normal readings from
  Saturday into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 339 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

Strong westerly flow remains in place this afternoon, with the
strong mid/upper jet easily translating down to the surface.
Winds were slow to increase today, but have since seen westerly
winds gusting up to around 50-55 mph across the high country and
up to around 45 mph over the lower elevations. While there was
a 58 mph gust noted at DEN, think that was an isolated and brief
occurrence and don`t think these gusts should become widespread
or long in duration this afternoon into the evening. While
temperatures warmed to above average values today, RH values did
fall through the afternoon hours. Widespread critical values
have not been observed, and don`t anticipate them for the
remainder of the day. Ongoing light snow showers across the
northern mountains will continue into the evening hours,
however, with the loss of better moisture will see this snow
diminish. Amounts will generally stay light, though a few spots
may see some isolated higher amounts.

Front anticipated to push across the plains on Thursday,
returning cooler temperatures to northern Colorado. Despite the
cooler temperatures on Thursday, drier air in place could
support some locations approaching critical RH values.
Confidence is low at this time, so will continue to message just
spotty near critical fire weather conditions for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 339 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

By Friday deep westerlies out ahead of an approaching trough
will be in place, with warming conditions once again expected
across the area. Highest temperatures on Friday will be across
the lower elevations, where temps could rise to around 60
degrees. This deep/upper trough will translate towards the
region by Friday night and as ascent and moisture increases,
will see snow develop across the high country. It does appear to
be small window for snow development, likely ending by Saturday
morning, but this period could easily see rounds of moderate
snowfall. This period will need to continue to be monitored for
this moderate, potentially heavy, snow. This is especially as a
stronger jet will remain in place, and could easily provide
stronger winds/gusts and blowing snow. A series of shortwave
troughs look to translate this stronger flow this weekend,
keeping chances for snow in place during this time.

By early next week, a deep trough looks to remain in place
across the western CONUS, with no real change in this pattern
through the period. While some uncertainty remains with the
exact details, anticipate periodic snow chances for both the
high and lower elevations along with below normal temperatures.
Will need to keep an eye on the strength of the colder air,
especially by the middle part of next week as some guidance is
showing some rather cold air returning. Again, a little far out,
but worth mentioning given the potential strength of this air
mass.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday/...
Issued at 422 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

VFR conditions and dry weather are expected at all three TAF sites,
KDEN, KAPA, and KBJC, through the forecast period. Strong
westerly winds are likely (>80% chance) to weaken significantly
between 01Z and 02Z this evening. Weaker west to southwest winds
persist into the overnight hours, with a wind shift expected after
11Z. Thursday`s wind directions and speeds will be subject to the
strength of the Denver cyclone setup, but, in general, easterly
winds are likely for KDEN, with northeast winds for KBJC, and
northwest winds for KAPA. Mostly clear sky conditions will be
present through the period, with only few to briefly scattered
upper-level clouds expected.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rodriguez
LONG TERM...Rodriguez
AVIATION...Ehr