223
FXUS65 KBOU 131817
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1117 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brief shot of snow in the mountains late Friday afternoon and
  Friday night with light rain showers over most of the plains.

- Dry with above normal temperatures on the weekend.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions Park County on
  Sunday, then over most of the plains much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 1127 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Area radars are indicating scattered light rain showers, mainly over
the northern half of the CWA`s plains.  The showers are dissipating
as they move east. The northern border counties actually have dew
point readings in the mid 30s F right now.  Some places may actually
be getting a few hundredths of measurable rain! There are also
some light snow showers in the mountains at present. The CAMs keep
the scattered showers going over the CWA until about 07Z-09Z
tonight.

Southwesterly flow aloft will decrease overnight and on Friday as an
upper trough moves eastward towards Colorado.  This trough moves
across the CWA Friday night into Saturday morning bringing a quick shot
of precipitation to the CWA. A brief period of deep moisture
accompanies the trough Friday afternoon and evening for most of
the CWA, especially over the mountains. There is limited synoptic
scale energy with the trough on the QG Omega fields, with the
best energy still progged south of Colorado. There is little to no
cold air advection for the CWA. Cross sections indicate virtually
no alpine orographic snowfall enhancement as mountain top winds
are very light and due northerly in direction. So, there will be a
brief period of light to moderate snow anywhere from 2 to 6
inches. The highest amounts look to be in zone 34. Expected
snowfall amounts do not warrant any highlights.

Over the plains, the trough will bring likely pops for all but the
northeast corner, mainly just Friday evening, decreasing after
midnight.  It looks warm enough for it to all all rain.

There is upper ridging west of the CWA early on Saturday with
moderate northwesterly flow aloft. The ridge axis is over Colorado
by Saturday night into Sunday. Moisture is sparse Saturday into
Saturday night, then some upper level moisture moves in through
Sunday night.  It will be dry.

With the warming expected on Sunday, fire weather conditions will
become elevated, especially over Park County by afternoon.

Temperatures continue to stay above seasonal normals Friday and
Saturday with highs in the lower 50s to 60 degrees over the plains.
On Sunday, readings warm further with highs in the lower to mid
60s.

For the later days, models have southwesterly flow aloft dominating
Monday through Wednesday. This flow becomes quite strong from Monday
night through Wednesday with jet level speeds as high at 170 knots.
The flow aloft weakens considerably on Thursday as upper troughing
approaches from the west. There is plenty of moisture around
Monday, but mostly aloft. Cross sections show low level moisture
increasing in the mountains and significant mountain top winds
Tuesday and Wednesday with snow a good bet both days. Even though
wind decrease on Thursday, there still looks to be a chance of
alpine snow. Over the plains, models continue to show elevated to
critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon hours all
four days, Monday through Thursday. Humidity levels drop below 20
percent during the afternoon hours each day and strong west and
southwesterly winds are progged. Tuesday, especially is of
concern, where models are showing wind gusts up to 50 mph by
afternoon over the plains. Temperatures will continue to be well
above seasonal normals Monday and Tuesday, cooling a bit Wednesday
and Thursday. The plains are dry all four days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1047 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Light north winds will shift to northeast this afternoon. The main
impact for this TAF period will be rain showers and somewhat low
ceilings. The most likely time of rain is from 01Z to 06Z at APA
and BJC and 02-05Z at DEN. Visibility could be reduced to 5 SM and
ceilings could be reduced to 1,000-1,500 feet under these showers.
There is more confidence that rain showers will occur over BJC and
APA than DEN. Low ceilings around 1,000-2,000 feet will continue
through 10-12Z at BJC and APA. The low clouds may clear out
earlier at DEN perhaps between 08-10Z.

Once the clouds clear out late tonight or early Saturday morning,
VFR conditions will exist for the rest of the TAF. There is strong
enough of a pressure gradient that the winds will likely be
northwesterly for the majority of the morning before shifting the
northeast in the afternoon.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...66
AVIATION...Danielson