562
FXUS65 KBOU 081254
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
554 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A winter storm remains on track to bring significant snowfall
  to much of northeast and north central Colorado today into
  Saturday morning.

- Moderate to heavy snowfall is expected by afternoon continuing
  overnight night creating very difficult winter driving
  conditions for much of northeast and north central Colorado,
  including the Urban Corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
Issued at 425 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

A decent snow event is still on track for northeast and north
central Colorado this afternoon through tonight.

Satellite pictures are showing the upper closed low circulation over
southwest/south central New Mexico at this time. Area radars are
currently showing an area of precipitation south and southeast of
the CWA, moving northward with echoes already getting into
southern Lincoln and southeastern Washington Counties.

Models maintain decent consistency with the track of the upper system
for the first two periods, with the upper low center tracking
northward right along the eastern Colorado border from 00Z
through 12Z tonight. So, the forecast is also on track, including
the warnings and advisories and snowfall amounts.

Models do, however, show an increase in QPF over the north
central CWA for this afternoon and evening. With that increased
QPF expected, we went ahead and extended Snow Advisories up into
zones 38 and 42 in addition to all the rest. Of note, the south
central and southeastern CWA could see 14 to 20 inches of snow by
Saturday morning.

There will be significant winter-weather travel impacts for much of
the forecast area by later this afternoon and especially this
evening and overnight. This includes the heavily populated Urban
Corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
Issued at 425 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

Snow will be decreasing from west to east Saturday morning as the
low moves eastward. Warming temperatures and increasing NNW winds
bringing some downslope drying will also reduce snowfall rates and
impacts. There could still be some minor accumulations but impacts
should be going away. Of course, places with deep snow will
require time for road clearing.

There will be a brief period of mountain wave activity as the flow
goes northwest Saturday night. At this point it doesn`t look like
much of a high wind threat, but the higher mountains and wave
prone foothills spots will likely see a period with 40-60 mph
gusts.

Not much to say about the rest of the forecast as we`ll have
modest westerly flow aloft. There`s a shortwave in the
Tuesday/Wednesday period that models are struggling with. Stronger
solutions would be enough for mountain showers and perhaps a quick
band of showers moving across the plains but most solutions are
weaker and drier. Whatever cooling there is should be short lived
as westerly flow continues and should displace any cooler air
mass. NBM solution is adequate.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday/...
Issued at 552 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

A large area of snow is pushing north-northwestward across the
southern forecast area at this time. Snow should begin at DIA
around 14Z. From about 17Z through tonight, will keep visiblities
below 2SM with -SN/SN BR/FZFG at DIA. Ceilings should not get
above BKN-OVC010-012 through that time frame as well. We are
expecting a period of 1/2SM SN FZFG OVC003-005 from 22Z this
afternoon through about 10Z early Saturday morning. Significant
winds should not be an issue at DIA with this storm.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST Saturday for COZ033>035-
038-042>044.

Winter Storm Warning until noon MST Saturday for COZ036-039>041-
045-049.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Saturday for COZ037.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Saturday for COZ046-047.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM....Gimmestad
AVIATION.....RJK