380
FXUS65 KBOU 280006
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
606 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread and prolonged critical fire weather conditions will
  be present in the high country through the weekend as warm, dry
  and windy conditions develop, continuing at times into early
  next week.

- Warmer today with an isolated severe thunderstorm possible over
  the far northeast plains this afternoon into the early evening
  hours.

- Little change in the forecast pattern through the middle part
  of next week. The only exception will be for a slight chance of
  thunderstorms over the plains on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 132 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

As expected, it`s warm, dry, and breezy across much of the
forecast area. Temperatures in the Denver metro have warmed into
the upper 80s to mid 90s (including a 94F so far at DEN), with
similar temps across the plains. Surface analysis shows a dryline
focused from roughly Peetz down into Yuma county in far
northeastern Colorado. East of the dryline resides a fairly
impressive convective environment, with MLCAPE approaching 2000
J/kg while effective layer shear remains around 35-45kt. Most
guidance makes an attempt or two at convective initiation along
the dryline where surface convergence is maximized. Current day
cloud phase satellite shows a small cumulus field slowly starting
to grow across Logan county. It`s a rather conditional setup, but
a supercell or two could try to develop this afternoon/evening
with hail/wind as the primary threats with relatively small,
straight-line hodographs.

Meanwhile, fire weather continues to be a concern across the high
country. Critical fire weather conditions have developed across
the high mountain valleys with gusts reaching 50 mph at Kremmling
and a couple RAWS sites. Critical fire weather conditions will be
the theme of the next several days across the high country, as dry
southwesterly flow remains in place. More on Fire Wx in the
section later in this AFD.

The main synoptic players for the next week won`t really move
much, with a broad upper trough over the northwestern CONUS and
large ridge across the Ohio Valley. It`s no surprise that
tomorrow`s weather will be largely the same as today, with highs
in the low to mid 90s and gusty winds through the day. One
shortwave should get close enough to the forecast area to push a
weak cold front through on Sunday night, leading to slightly
cooler temperatures for Monday. The flow aloft is expected to
gradually weaken through the period, with a couple attempts to get
some moisture into the region by mid/late week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday/...
Issued at 602 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

A cyclone that formed north of the Denver metro area this afternoon
has migrated southeast and is currently sitting just east of KDEN.
As such, winds at KDEN over the last hour have gone from southerly
to W-WSW, to even a brief push of NW winds. Although uncertainty
remains regarding the exact track of this cyclone, winds will most
likely remain southwesterly before southerly drainage winds develop
by 06Z.

A weak cold front will move through the region early Sunday morning
which will bring a period of light and variable winds between 10Z
and 14Z. If a cyclone develops tomorrow afternoon as model guidance
has suggested, winds will be very tricky once again given that the
position of the cyclone will dictate wind direction at each airport.
If the cyclone develops just north of Denver, winds will start out
southerly at KDEN and KAPA before shifting to the west by mid-
afternoon. KBJC will likely remain variable through the morning
before shifting to either SW or NW, depending on the location of the
cyclone. Regardless of wind direction, tomorrow will be another
breezy day with gusts up to 25-30KT possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 132 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Critical fire weather conditions will persist across the high
country for the next several hours. Gusty winds have developed as
expected, with nearly every station within the Red Flag Warning
area seeing gusts of 35-50 mph. Relative humidity is generally
between 10-16% across most of the area and little change is
expected this afternoon. Winds will be slow to recover tonight and
humidity will also be slow to recover overnight into Sunday
morning.

While an upper trough slowly approaches the region, there will be
little change overall in fire weather conditions Sunday.
Southwesterly winds will develop during the morning hours, with
deep mixing leading to RH falling again to around 10-17%. While a
cold front is expected to bring some relief Sunday night
(particularly with respect to humidity recovery), no precipitation
or substantial cooling is expected during the week. Additional
elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected each day
next week, with additional Fire Weather Watches likely needed for
at least Monday. Fuels status may also need to be re-evaluated for
areas that did not see significant precipitation over the last
week or so.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for COZ211>214-
216>218.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ211>214-
216-218.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hiris
AVIATION...AA
FIRE WEATHER...Hiris