226
FXUS65 KBOU 040010
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
610 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow will continue over much of our forecast area this
  afternoon and evening. Some light accumulation is expected in
  the mountains and higher terrain while roads will be wet across
  the plains.

- More rain and snow showers Friday into Saturday morning, with
  light snow accumulations across the Foothills, Front Range
  mountains, and Palmer Divide.

- Warmer and drier next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Friday/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

A few bands of moderate snow have developed throughout the day
today with a current band over Morgan County. While there has
been a little slush that has accumulated, almost all of the snow
has melted on contact across the plains. Most of these showers are
moving northward with clearing on radar over Elbert, Lincoln, and
Washington Counties. Over the higher terrain, patchy sunshine has
allowed for steep lapse rates to form. This instability has
created scattered convective snow showers with brief periods of
moderate snow. The HRRR has continually shown convective snow
showers moving over the Denver metro this evening. Other models
have not been as aggressive with the convective snow showers over
the Denver metro and some solution in-between these will likely
end up being true. The western suburbs, like Golden and Boulder,
may pick up an inch of snow if these convective snow showers move
overhead but it seems unlikely that areas east of I-25 get
accumulating snow this evening.

After midnight, precipitation will mostly come to an end across
our forecast area. There may be some fog or mist that develops and
it could lead to a few slick spots during the morning commute
especially on bridges.

During the mid-morning on Friday, a cold front will move southward
out of Wyoming and will move through our plains and foothills.
There will be northeast winds with gusts between 25-30 mph. This
added upslope flow will create snow showers mainly over the
foothills. The foothills could see anywhere from 1-5" of snow
during the day tomorrow. The precipitation will be very terrain
dependent across the plains. The Palmer Divide will likely see
snow showers for much of the day with roads remaining most wet.
Areas on the southwest side of the Denver metro will likely see
consistent light snow while areas towards DIA may see breaks in
the precipitation with light drizzle and flurries. It will not be
the best day to be outside as wind chills with be in the upper 20s
in Denver along with the precipitation. Highs will stay in the
upper 30s to low 40s across the plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday night through Thursday/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Snow showers will likely continue into the overnight hours Friday
night as the upper trough stalls out over southern New Mexico.
Moisture and upslope will gradually diminish through the night,
with the best chance of additional snow accumulation across the
foothills. Guidance varies quite a bit with the north/eastward
extent of the snow into the Denver metro/I-25 corridor, but any
snow accumulation would likely be limited to a half inch or so.

The weekend should be much quieter. A few snow showers will
probably linger across the terrain through at least the first half
of the day, with dry conditions elsewhere. Skies should quickly
clear during the afternoon, but temperatures will remain cool.
Highs on Saturday should climb back into the mid 40s.

A more impressive warming trend is expected to begin Sunday and
continue through most of next week, as a broad ridge axis builds
across the western CONUS. Sunday should see temperatures return
back to near normal values, with 60s and 70s likely for most of
next week. A weak shortwave still looks to track through sometime
Tuesday or Wednesday, with a few snow showers across the
mountains, with little else across the forecast area. Pretty good
ensemble agreement on well above normal temperatures as we get
closer to next weekend, with no real hints at precipitation across
the plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday/...
Issued at 609 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Band of heavier snow showers is working across Denver metro to
start, but it gradually weakening or thinning. However, brief
reductions of visibility (down to 1/2-3/4SM) with accumulating
snow in the grass and a bit of slush on runways possible til
01-0130Z. There are still a couple heavier showers behind that,
but for the most part look for diminishing showers through 03-05Z,
before ending altogether. Ceilings will remain low (IFR)
overnight, and potential for fog is high enough with a very moist
boundary layer and light/vrb or light northerly winds for fog
reducing to 1/2-2SM as the most likely scenario.

That fog is expected to lift toward 15Z-16Z Friday as a cold
front approaches. That next front will usher in colder
temperatures aloft, upslope, and some more snow for the TAF sites.
We think the best opportunity of snow will start closer to 18Z,
but a chance it starts as early as 16Z. We think the more
widespread and persistent snow will focus closer to the foothills,
with KDEN on the edge of any accumulating snow into Friday
evening. IFR/MVFR conditions will persist through the period.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Danielson
LONG TERM...Hiris
AVIATION...Barjenbruch