860
FXUS65 KBOU 242027
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
227 PM MDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions through early
  evening.

- Cold front arrives this evening with cooler weather for
  Saturday, and improving precipitation chances by Sunday, with a
  chance for thunderstorms on the plains.

- Unsettled and cooler weather pattern for a change sticks around
  for much of the upcoming week. No big storm expected to relieve
  the drought (<20% chance), but a few bouts of light rain
  expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Sunny and mild today across the state as a large closed upper-level
low continues to be stationed over Saskatchewan. Critical fire
weather conditions will be in place through this afternoon with
current relative humidities ranging from the single digits to 15-20%
and continuing to decrease during peak daytime heating. Varying
trends in wind direction have been observed over the Denver metro
area, but gusts have generally been around 20-30 mph with stronger
southerly flow over the eastern Colorado plains. A cold front will
push through the region early this evening between 8 PM and 10 PM
and bring a brief period of northerly winds with gusts up to 40-45
mph behind the front, particularly over the eastern half of the CWA.
This cold front will put an end to critical fire weather conditions
for our area and be the start of a pattern change for the next
couple of days.

Precipitation changes will be slightly higher late tomorrow
afternoon and evening, with a chance for scattered high-based
showers late in the afternoon over the low elevations as winds turn
easterly and promote weak upslope development. However, better
synoptic forcing and moisture will arrive Saturday night into Sunday
as a shortwave trough moves through. For the mountains,
southwesterly flow will bring increased moisture from the Pacific
and a decent chance (75% chance) of rain showers, with snow showers
at elevations above 8500ft. Travel impacts are possible for highest
mountain passes, particularly Sunday afternoon/evening.

The peak precipitation chances will occur Sunday afternoon for both
the mountains and plains. However, the main driving force of rain
showers for the eastern Colorado plains will be a surge of easterly
flow bringing widespread 40-50F dewpoints into the region.
Additionally, high-res model guidance suggests that decent surface-
based CAPE will be available for at least part of the region,
providing conditions favorable for thunderstorm development. The
convective environment will likely be able to support an isolated
strong thunderstorm or two, but confidence regarding the exact
location of the strongest thunderstorms remains low at this time.

Some uncertainty heading into the beginning of the week in terms of
precipitation chances for the forecast area, as models continue to
differ on the timing and track of embedded shortwaves through
Tuesday. As of right now, it looks like sometime late Monday and
possibly into early Tuesday morning will be the best chance for
precipitation, as models resolve weak QG lift in that timeframe.
Overall, QPF amounts look modest, with ensembles ranging from T-
0.30" QPF for the plains, and 0.30"-0.60" QPF for the mountains.

We will likely see a break in showers by midweek in between systems.
Ensemble guidance is in good agreement of temperatures climbing back
up to the mid 60s. The next system should arrive around the end of
the week, with a cold front bringing max temperatures back down to
the 50s for the plains. Recent ensemble runs have trended towards
less QPF (now only a 20-40% of 24hr QPF >0.5") due to a slightly
more southerly track of the upper level shortwave. Will have to
continue to monitor trends, as a more northerly track would
result in more precipitation for our area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Winds will be a bit all over the place for the next couple of
hours. We have a boundary or two out there right now that are
causing variable gusty winds. Winds are generally switching
between SE and SW, with gusts around 15 to 20kts. Winds will start
turning clockwise over the next couple of hours. We could see
periods of lights winds and gusts around 20kts during this time.
Winds at DIA have quite a bit of uncertainty this afternoon. The
boundaries and surface troughing will lead to a difficult forecast
for DIA. Right now, we have gusty winds from the NW later this
afternoon before winds turn more westerly around 22Z or 23Z.
However, there is a low chance that we could see winds swing all
the way around to the NE around 21Z instead. The gusty W winds
should prevail late this afternoon into the early evening before
winds start to weaken a bit. A strong front is expected to move
through the terminals between 3Z and 4Z this evening. Gusty NE
winds are expected along and behind the front for a few hours.
Gusts around 25 to 35kts are expected. Behind the front, we`re
also expecting low ceilings, with CIGs dropping near 2000ft around
midnight and continuing into the early morning. CIGs will start
to lift and scatter out around 12Z to 14Z, while winds turn more
easterly.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ214>216-
238>247-249.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AA/MAI
AVIATION...AP