362
FXUS65 KBOU 050212
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
812 PM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers continue through this evening before slowly
  decreasing. Most of the snowfall will be light with little or
  no accumulation below 6000 feet. Heavier amounts possible in the
  foothills west and southwest of Denver, but limited impacts.

- Warmer and mostly dry Sunday through Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 808 PM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Forecast remains in good shape this evening. Radar shows snow
continuing across mainly the southwest metro, where CDOT webcams
suggest at least a couple inches of snow have fallen since early
this afternoon. Like many shallow/weak upslope events, there will
be a southwest to northeast gradient across the metro, with little
to no accumulation north and east of I-70/US-36. Snowfall should
diminish after midnight with just a few snow showers across the
southern Foothills by Saturday morning.

Didn`t see a need to make significant changes to the grids. Did
make some minor adjustments to PoPs over the next few hours to
better capture current radar/obs, but nothing else of note at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 147 PM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Large upper level low over southern Arizona will track eastward
along the U.S/Mexico border tonight and Saturday. Over Colorado,
flow aloft becomes very weak. At the surface, high pressure
continues to build in from the north with low pressure well to the
south. This will bring north to northeast winds through tonight.
The strongest winds will be through early evening with gusts to 30
mph. These north to northeast winds along with steep low level
lapse rates will produce snow showers along the Front Range. This
upslope flow will be the main forcing. The heaviest snowfall is
expected in the foothills with 3 to 7 inches expected. Roads may
become slippery tonight as road temperatures drop. For areas below
6000 feet an inch or two will be possible on grassy surfaces,
mainly near the foothills and over south Denver towards the Palmer
Divide.

Northeast winds slowly decrease and slightly drier air filters
into the area overnight, slowly bringing the snow to an end by
sunrise Saturday morning. Low clouds linger until mid to late
morning and then give way to mostly sunny skies for Saturday
afternoon. Temperatures will remain chilly on Saturday with highs
in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday night through Friday/...
Issued at 213 PM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Models show fairly weak easterly and northeasterly flow aloft for
the CWA Saturday night into Monday. Later Monday and Monday
night, models have increasing northwesterly flow aloft for us.
The QG Omega fields show benign to weak downward vertical
velocity in the synoptic scale Saturday night through Monday
night. In the lower levels the pressure and wind fields point to a
weak pressure gradient Saturday night then weak lee troughing
Sunday through Monday night. Normal diurnal winds patterns are a
good bet throughout.

Looking at moisture, cross sections have limited amounts; mainly
in the upper levels here and there. There is bit in the mid levels
over the plains late day Sunday and Monday overnight. Overall, it
will be pretty dry.  There is nothing indicated on any of the
models QPF fields through Monday night. For temperatures, Sunday`s
highs will be 3-7 C warmer than Saturday`s highs and right at
seasonal normals; which will be mid 50s to lowers 60s over the
plains. For Monday`s readings, they warm up another 2-4 C from
Sunday`s.

For the later days, Tuesday through Friday, northwesterly flow is
expected Tuesday and Wednesday with upper ridging to our immediate
west. Jet level speeds increase through the period, with a jet
maximum staying north and northeast of the CWA. The upper ridging
gets into and over Colorado Thursday and Friday. Highs over the
plains look to be in the 70s all four days and close to 80 degrees
by Friday. The airmass will be pretty dry with only 10-20%
chances of late day alpine showers Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday/...
Issued at 534 PM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Low ceilings and some snow showers will continue through the next
several hours. Starting to see more consistent snow at BJC/APA,
but suspect we won`t have deep enough moisture/upslope for this to
reach DEN. Low stratus remains locked into the region and some
sort of BKN/OVC010-020 looks likely to continue overnight. The
gustier northeast winds we`re currently seeing should gradually
diminish through the evening hours.

Cigs/visby should slowly improve overnight, but MVFR cigs will
likely continue into Saturday morning. Guidance holds on to a
BKN040-050 deck through the early afternoon hours tomorrow and
have adjusted accordingly. We should see VFR conditions return
after 18z tomorrow, which will then continue through Saturday
evening/Saturday night.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hiris
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM....rjk
AVIATION...Hiris