773
FXUS65 KBOU 142350
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
550 PM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms over the northeast plains ending by
  early evening.

- Warmer and dry for Monday.

- Unsettled, uncertain pattern beginning Tuesday and for most of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Satellite imagery showing the upper level low over Nebraska. The
low will continue to lift northward, taking the showers and storms
over northeast Colorado with it. By early evening, the showers
and thunderstorms will be northeast of Colorado.

Weak ridging moves across the region Monday leading to warmer and
drier conditions. High temperatures are expected to reach the
lower to mid 80s across northeast Colorado. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to form over Wyoming ahead of an upper
level low approaching Colorado from the north. There is a slight
chance for a few of these to graze far northern Colorado. A cold
front pushes south through the area Monday night as the upper
level low slowly moves south into Wyoming Monday night. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to track across the area
Tuesday. The upper level continues to slowly advance southeastward
and will be over or near eastern Colorado on Wednesday. This will
continue the cool and unsettled pattern over Colorado. The low is
then expected to be east of Colorado late Wednesday.

The weather pattern is still somewhat unclear for Thursday
through next weekend. Upper level ridge builds west of Colorado,
over the Great Basin. Meanwhile the upper level low remains just
east of Colorado. Latest runs show this ridging a little farther
west with more of a north-northwest flow aloft over Colorado. It`s
beginning to look more likely that Thursday will be another cool
and unsettled day. Friday`s weather will depend on far east the
ridging builds and advances, but latest trends has slowed the
eastward advancement of the ridge, slowing the warming trend. For
next weekend, there`s a slight preference for ridging for
Saturday, but there are plenty of other solutions, though none
point to any large systems just weak waves embedded in the flow
aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 535 PM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds should turn S by 03Z
for DEN and APA, but remain light and VRB at BJC. Overnight,
stronger than normal drainage winds are expected with winds around
15 mph. Tomorrow morning, a cyclone will move through APA and DEN
between 18-22Z, creating VRB winds. Showers are possible (<30%
chance) in the afternoon, however have kept it out of the TAF for
now due to low confidence.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meier
AVIATION...Ideker