250
FXUS65 KBOU 072047
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
247 PM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued warm and mostly dry today through Friday, with above
  normal temperatures expected from Tuesday onward.

- Areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be
  possible Tuesday through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 147 PM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Current satellite imagery continues to show clear skies across the
region. Temperatures have warmed to the 60s across the plains, 40s
and 50s in the mountains. With clear skies expected to continue
through the afternoon, we should still get a few more degrees
warmer before the sun goes down.

For tonight, flow aloft will transition to a westerly regime as a
shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies flattens out
today`s overhead amplified ridge. Cross-barrier flow will
increase as a modest jet moves in from the west throughout the
night. Clear skies will keep temperatures cool, but downsloping
winds will keep temperatures a tad milder along the base of the
foothills and adjacent plains, where we expect temperatures in
the 40s. The rest of the plains will be in the 30s, and teens and
20s for the high country.

Warm and dry conditions are expected again tomorrow. The main
concern for the day will be enhanced westerly winds and low
relative humidities leading to critical fire weather conditions
developing across portions of our northeastern plains. Have issued
a Fire Weather Watch for locations where the strongest winds and
low relative humidities are expected beginning at 11 AM Tuesday
morning through 6 PM Tuesday evening, including northern Weld
County, Logan County, Washington County, and Phillips County,
where wind gusts to 30 mph and relative humidity values as low as
13% are expected.

With the increasing westerly flow aloft, guidance shows a mountain
wave cloud developing by early morning. While this should make
for a beautiful sunrise, high temperatures may be impacted for
areas, generally along I-25 from WY to the Palmer Divide,
including the urban corridor, where the cloud cover will limit
surface heating. However, compressional warming from downslope
winds may be just enough to warm temps up to the forecast low
70s. Where less clouds and stronger winds will be in place over
the eastern plains, high temperatures are forecast to be in the
mid to upper 70s.



&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Monday/...
Issued at 147 PM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025

We`ll start this period under northwest flow aloft, with some cold
advection noted. There is also weak mid level moisture advection,
enough to have some low PoPs for mountain snow showers Tuesday
night and a brief shower possible over the northeast corner of
the state. Wednesday will keep the stronger northwest flow aloft
across the area, and that means stronger winds and fire weather
concerns as the airmass dries again. Winds could gust to 30-40
mph across the plains, and humidity will be approaching critical
thresholds. Temperature advection reverses signs to positive late
in the day, so that should allow for another day of above normal
readings, with highs near 70F across the plains.

Thursday is still trending a bit cooler behind a backdoor cold
front, so that`s the one day this coming week that could still end
up close to normal.

Friday and Saturday are still shaping up to be the warmest days,
as the warm ridge of high pressure builds across the Central
Rockies. This will push high temperatures into the 75 to 80 degree
range for highs across the plains by Friday, and likely into the
mid 80s by Saturday as the thermal ridge shifts overhead. There`s
strong ensemble agreement in these temperature forecasts.

That ensemble agreement does break down toward Sunday, and that`s
all dependent on how fast the next trough arrives. For now, we`ll
indicate some modest cooling and a slight chance of showers by
late Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds are becoming
light and variable across all TAF sites and are expected to remain
that way through the early evening. Winds tonight will transition
to an enhanced southerly drainage before shifting to the west
Tuesday morning. Westerly winds will increase early Tuesday
afternoon with gusts between 20-25 mph possible.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for COZ242-248-249-251.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bonner
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Bonner