784
FXUS65 KBOU 261123
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
523 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some virga and spotty weak showers/storms possible for the
  plains this afternoon, with gust outflow winds at times.

- Hot and dry Sunday into Monday.

- Afternoon thunderstorm chances return for Tuesday, with signs of
  a notably wetter pattern into Wednesday/Thursday, including
  potential for heavy rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 229 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

A broad Denver cyclone is evident based off TDEN/KFTG Z/V products
and surface observations this afternoon. There`s also a pretty
well-defined difference in surface moisture along with this
circulation, with low 30s dew points at DEN/APA while the northern
I-25 corridor (FNL/GXY) still have mid 50s Tds in the better
defined easterly upslope flow. Meanwhile, convection has been much
slower to develop this afternoon compared to the past couple of
days, which isn`t too much of a surprise given the decreasing
moisture across the region. There`s been a little more robust
development across the southern Foothills and in Larimer county,
but there`s still some modest MLCIN across most of the lower
elevations. All that said, we still expect isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms to spread into the lower
elevations through this evening. Can`t rule out a marginally
severe storm or two but the lack of deep layer shear will likely
keep most of our convection disorganized.

Ridging will begin to expand across the southern/southeastern
CONUS this weekend, with a much drier airmass working back into
the region. There may be enough mid-level moisture left for a few
gusty/high-based showers across the region on Saturday, with even
drier conditions likely by Sunday. Low to mid 90s are forecast
Saturday with mid to upper 90s likely Sunday and Monday.

Ridging will break down by early to mid week next week, with a
better push of moisture returning back to our area by Tuesday or
Wednesday. There`s fairly good agreement for wetting rainfall
across the region by Wednesday or Thursday of next week, with ECME
probQPF > 0.10" near 40-70% across the CWA. We`ll see how guidance
trends over the next few days, but it does look like a legitimate
chance of seeing some good rainfall along and east of the Front
Range.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday/...
Issued at 519 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all terminals through
the TAF period. Drainage winds early this morning should gradually
take on a more northerly direction by early afternoon. Starting
near 21Z, wind directions will be heavily driven by outflows from
weak, high-based convection. Chance of SHRA at terminals is low
(~15-20%), but there`s greater potential for localized outflows
of 30-35 kts in the vicinity of any virga/elevated convection.
Expect a return to southerly drainage winds early to mid evening.
Modest smoke aloft may reduce slant range vis at times through the
TAF period.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hiris
AVIATION...Rodriguez