491
FXUS65 KBOU 042345
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
545 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with a gradual warming trend through the middle of next week
  (outside of Monday). Elevated to critical fire weather
  conditions likely return by Wednesday (60% chance).

- Unsettled weather returns for the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Relatively quiet weather is expected through Monday morning as weak
ridging aloft dominates the weather pattern, with a surface high
pressure sinking into the Great Plains. It is breezy across our
northern and eastern plains, with current surface observations
showing northwest gusts up to 45 mph at times. Expect those winds to
gradually weaken after sunset. Warm and dry conditions will prevail
through the weekend, with good guidance agreement of temperatures
reaching up to the mid-to-high 60s on Sunday. Overnight Sunday/early
Monday morning, a backdoor cold front will cool temperatures
slightly for the plains. However, models are struggling on how to
handle how far west the cooler temperatures are advected, as the
ECMWF ensemble guidance continues to be about 8F warmer than the
GEFS. With these scenarios, the front typically is able to make it
all the way to the base of the foothills. For this reason, have
continued to keep max temperatures lower than NBM guidance. Most of
the plains will likely see temperatures in the high 50s/low 60s,
rather than upper 60s.

By Monday afternoon, the upper level ridge will begin to flatten
over the Rockies as a 500-mb low enters the northwestern United
States. With a little bit of moisture embedded in the westerly flow,
there could be scattered light snow showers (30-40% chance) for our
southern mountains. Some ensemble solutions in the GEFS/EPS even
show rain showers for the northeastern plains Monday evening (<20%
chance). However, if any precipitation were to occur, expect very
light amounts as ensemble solutions only show ~0.05" of QPF.

By midweek, there will be increasing westerly flow aloft as the 500-
mb low treks across the northern U.S. Some moisture will be advected
into the region, with relatively good guidance agreement of
scattered light mountains snow showers (40-60% chance). However,
still some uncertainty with any measurable precipitation for the
plains on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the overall limited
moisture availability. With breezy downsloping winds and 700-mb
temperatures reaching up to 7C to 8, temperatures should get up to
the low 70s both days. In addition, with relative humidities
dipping down to 13- 20%, elevated to critical fire weather
conditions are possible, particularly Wednesday as the strongest
winds are expected that day.

By the end of the week, we will be entering a more active weather
pattern as flow aloft turns more southwesterly ahead of an incoming
shortwave trough. Pacific moisture will be advected into the region,
with daily precipitation chances for mountains and plains through
the weekend. &&


.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday/...
Issued at 540 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2026

VFR conditions will continue throughout the forecast period.
Winds have been light throughout today. GOES satellite imagery
shows mid-level cloud cover well north of all three sites- closer
to a Greeley to Fort Morgan line. The latest hi-res models have
varying wind directions late tonight into tomorrow, but there is
strong agreement that wind speeds will remain light (at or below
10 kts). Therefore, we have VRB winds for the early hours of
Sunday through Sunday morning at KDEN and KAPA. At KBJC, winds
will be light and VRB this evening before eventually turning NW
early tomorrow morning, but staying light. Tomorrow afternoon,
winds should move from SE to E around 21-23z. Then, winds will
turn to S around 2z-4z with light wind speeds continuing (at or
below 10 kts). Soundings and humidity cross sections show low
moisture tomorrow, so expect clear conditions with a few mid to
high level clouds possible tomorrow evening.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...MV