331
FXUS65 KBOU 101929
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
129 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms possible this
  afternoon across the urban corridor and eastern plains.

- Elevated fire conditions will continue over the higher terrain
  through Wednesday.

- Drier and warmer weather develops Monday and continues through
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 129 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Over the past couple hours, northeast winds have surged westward,
into the northern foothills. It`s been a little slow to make it
into the southern foothills. Outflow from convection to the
southwest of Denver will likely keep the best moisture out of the
southern foothills. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued
for much of eastern Colorado and most of the urban corridor
(except Jefferson County) where dew points are in the 50s (or
better), MLCAPE is 1000- 2000 J/kg and 0-6km Bulk Shear is 35-40
knots. These ingredients are expected to produce strong/severe
storms, including some supercell thunderstorms. Large hail to 2.5
inch in diameter and 70 mph will be the main threats. A tornado or
two is also possible. Isolated flash flooding will be possible
where multiple storms train over the same area. The Severe
Thunderstorm Watch runs until 8PM, afterwards storms should be
weaker. However, some models show a second round of weaker storms
mid to late evening, so will continue with decent (30- 60%) PoPs
for this.

For Monday, the upper level trough axis will be just east of the
area with a dry subsident northwest flow aloft. In addition to the
drier air in place, soundings show a strong mid level inversion,
around 450mb. This is expected to keep showers and storms from
developing on Monday. If this system slows a little, the southern
part of the forecast area could pick up a few showers and storms,
so will have low PoPs in these areas.

The upper level high begins to build over the area Tuesday and
will be centered over the Central Rockies Wednesday and at least
into early Thursday. Warmer air returns to the area under this
pattern with highs expected to reach the 90s Wednesday and
Thursday across northeast Colorado. Dry conditions are expected
for Tuesday and Wednesday with dry air over the area and the
subtropical moisture cut off from the area. On Thursday, the ridge
may drift eastward enough for the subtropical moisture to lift
northward into the area.

For Friday and next weekend, the upper level high will be over
the south central and southeast part of the country. This will
result in a weak south to southwest flow across the Central and
Southern Rockies. Subtropical (monsoon) moisture travels northward
into the area. Expected at least scattered afternoon/evening
thunderstorms in the mountains each day (Friday-Sunday) under this
pattern and possibly onto the plains. Temperatures take a step
back and will be closer to normal, which is upper 80s to lower 90s
over northeast Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/...
Issued at 1141 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Light north/northeast winds will increase as they shift
northeast/east as a boundary moves through soon. With
thunderstorms already forming over the higher terrain west and
southwest of Denver, expect them to affect APA around 19Z. The
initial storms are expected to stay south of DEN, but not by much
with outflow winds possible, so a wind shift to the
south/southeast seems the most likely direction for the first wind
shift this afternoon. Moved up the PROB30 to 19Z with storms near
DEN and will continue with the PROB30 through the afternoon. With
an evening round of storms possible, will have a PROB30 until
04Z.

For Monday, south to southwest drainage winds are expected to
become north to northeast after 16Z and stay northeasterly through
the day. With drier air moving in and a strong mid level
inversion, no thunderstorms are expected in the Denver area
Monday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meier
AVIATION...Meier