315
FXUS65 KBOI 132032
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
Issued by National Weather Service Pocatello ID
232 PM MDT Tue May 13 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...An upper low will
continue to support showers and isolated thunderstorms through
this evening. Some of the storms may produce gusty outflow
winds and small hail. Snow levels between 6500 and 7000 feet
could result in light snow accumulations on the higher
mountains. The low will move further east on Wednesday so the
chance for showers is lower and favored over the higher
elevations of SW Idaho. Instability remains minimal, but enough
for a slight chance (<= 20 percent) of thunderstorms in central
and s-central Idaho in the afternoon. The low moves east of the
area as a weak upper ridge replaces it on Thursday for dry
conditions. Temperatures remain cool in this pattern along with
breezy winds.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...A weak, shortwave trough
will pass through the forecast area on Friday. This disturbance
will increase shower and thunderstorm chances, mainly for the
higher terrain of SW Idaho. A large low pressure system will
arrive Saturday, supporting widespread precipitation with 6k-7k
feet MSL snow levels across SE Oregon and SW Idaho.
Thunderstorms will be possible as conditions become more
unstable in the afternoon. In addition, winds will become breezy
ahead of the low on Saturday, but temperatures should remain
around normal. The low is forecast to continue south and east on
Sunday, with shower coverage decreasing in its wake. The surface
pressure gradient will tighten behind the cold front Sunday and
create windy conditions across SE Oregon and the western Snake
Plain. Temperatures will be approximately 5-10 degrees cooler as
northwesterly flow moves overhead. Winds will decrease but
remain breezy on Monday as weak high pressure starts to build
in from the east. Lingering mountain showers will diminish by
Monday evening. Temperatures are expected to rebound to around
normal for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Scattered showers moving S-SE today into
Wed. Isolated thunderstorms this aft/eve may create localized
MVFR/IFR conditions. Mountain obscuration in low clouds/showers.
Snow levels: 6-7k feet MSL. Surface winds: W-NW 10-20 kt with
gusts 25-35 kt, decreasing to 5-15 kt tonight, except remaining
strong from KMUO to KTWF/KJER. Winds aloft aft 10kft MSL: N-NW
10-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Periods of rain showers and outflow winds to around
30 kt expected this aft-early eve. Showers will be capable of
brief MVFR ceilings and lightning (15% chance). Best chance for
lightning will be this aft through 14/00Z. Surface winds: NW
around 15-20 kt with aft gusts to 25 kt, decreasing to around 10
kt by sunset.


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....SH
AVIATION.....SH