754
FXUS65 KBOI 211034
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
334 AM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night...An amplifying upper
ridge will bring dry, mild and breezy conditions to the region
through the weekend. Gusty winds will develop in response to a
deepening trough and surface low off the West Coast. The winds
will be strongest from this afternoon through Sunday though
it will remain breezy into Monday. Easterly winds will funnel
through the Snake Plain along the I-84 corridor while the
southerly flow aloft mixes to the surface across higher terrain
of SE Oregon and southwest Idaho. The strongest winds will be
along the Snake River and across Harney County with gusts of 35
to 45 mph likely. Most model output keeps the area dry through
Monday with a few members supporting a 20-30% chance of showers
across Baker County and the w-central Idaho mtns by the
afternoon. Precipitation chances increase Monday night as the
upper ridge flattens with a more westerly flow directing a
ribbon of deep moisture into the region. Precipitable water
values jump into the 90th percentile and coupled with strong
flow aloft widespread rain/snow will develop over the
mountains. Snow levels will start between 6-7kft Monday night
limiting accumulating snow to the higher peaks. High
temperatures today will run 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday
with another 10 degrees of warming into Sunday. Monday has the
potential to be a few degrees warmer, but expect some of that to
be offset by increasing clouds.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...An approaching Pacific
trough and moist west to southwest flow aloft will continue to
bring widespread rain and snow to the area on Tuesday. The
moisture will have subtropical origins, which will push snow
levels up to 5500- 6500 feet for much of the event, but may
climb as high as 7000-8000 feet at times across southern areas.
A cold front late Tuesday night or early Wednesday will cut off
the moisture tap and bring much drier air into the region, with
widespread rain and snow tapering off to isolated to scattered
showers. Snow levels will fall to 2500- 4500 feet MSL behind the
front, but most of the precipitation will occur ahead of the
front. Moderate precipitation totals are likely, with heavier
amounts in the mountains favored by strong flow aloft. High snow
levels will limit heavy snow to the higher peaks. Light snow
accumulations are possible in mountain valleys along the front,
with a few snowflakes down to valley floors possible Wednesday.
Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will average near normal, and
winds will be breezy.

Confidence continues to increase in a drier pattern developing
Thursday through Saturday as a ridge builds off the coast,
placing us in mostly dry northwest flow aloft as the storm track
stays to our north. However, a minority of ensembles suppress
the ridge and bring moist westerly flow into the area. Overall,
this uncertainty results in a 20-40% chance of rain and mountain
snow each day. Temperatures are expected to be near to slightly
above normal with breezy winds continuing, especially each
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR under mid to high clouds. Patchy fog in
mountain valleys this morning. Areas of virga today but
precipitation generally not reaching the surface. Surface winds:
E-S 5-15 kt, except 10-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt in the lower
Snake Plain and near KBKE beginning this afternoon. Winds aloft
at 10kft MSL: SW 15-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: SE 10-15 kt. Gusts to 20-25 kt
beginning late morning/early afternoon.

Sunday Outlook...Mainly VFR. Local IFR fog in mtn valleys in the
morning. Surface winds: E-S 5-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt,
except in highlands and the Snake Plain where gusts up to 30 kt
will continue.

&&


.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....ST
AVIATION.....ST