771
FXUS65 KBOI 231547
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
947 AM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.DISCUSSION...Weak returns near the Nevada border are verified
to be virga showers across southern portions of our CWA this
morning thanks to mountain top webcams. Today looks to be hot
and dry across most of the area, with smoke and haze reducing
visibility, but mixing out slightly by early afternoon.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated near the
Nevada border, with outflow gusts up to 45 mph in stronger
showers/storms. A cooler and wetter trend will still begin late
tomorrow into next week, with widespread rain by Wednesday.
Precipitation chances adjusted in short term forecast, otherwise
no updates.

&&

.AVIATION...Areas of MVFR/IFR due to wildfire smoke in w-central
Idaho, especially near KMYL, resulting in reduced visibility and mtn
obscuration. Smoke layers across E-Oregon and SW-Idaho. Virga
showers in SE-Oregon could produce localized outflows of 25kt this
afternoon. High density altitude this afternoon due to hot
temperatures. Surface winds: Variable up to 12kt. Winds aloft at
10kft MSL: Variable 5-15 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Smoke Layers aloft. Surface winds: S-SE 5-10 kt this
morning, becoming NW 5-10kt after Sat/20Z.

Sunday Outlook...Mainly VFR. Visibility reductions and mtn
obscuration in W-Central Idaho due to wildfire smoke. A 30-50%
chance of showers/thunderstorms near the NV border Sunday PM.
Variable 5-15 kt surface winds, except gusty/erratic winds 35-45 kt
near thunderstorms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night...The upper ridge is at
its peak strength today resulting in hot afternoon temps as
highs approach 100F in some lower valley locations. Monsoon
moisture creeps northward as well, but mostly in the mid and
high levels for increasing clouds later today. There is enough
moisture available in the lower levels, however, for a slight
chance (less than 25 percent) of afternoon-evening
showers/thunderstorms near the ID/NV border. Temperatures start
to cool slightly on Sunday as the ridge weakens and clouds
increase further across the region. The higher moisture remains
south near the Nevada border, but the chance of
showers/thunderstorms increases to 30-50 percent. Gusty outflow
winds will accompany the convection. The slight cooling trend
continues into Monday, along with a northern advancement of the
monsoon moisture. The showers/thunderstorms could reach the
Treasure Valley late in the day, but the chance is less than 20
percent. Gusty winds are the main concern with the
thunderstorms, some of which could be strong. The smoke from
wildfires is expected to remain mainly across central Idaho, but
could reach into the Treasure Valley. Improvement is expected
early in the week.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Monsoon moisture expands
and deepens across the region Tuesday into Wednesday for at
least a chance (30+ percent) of showers and thunderstorms - some
of which may contain strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
An upper ridge develops later in the week, accompanied by drier
and stable conditions. Temperatures remain near to slightly
below normal.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...SA
AVIATION.....NF
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....BW