051
FXUS65 KBOI 050256
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
856 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.DISCUSSION...The Flash Flood Watch for the Boise Mountains and
West central Idaho Mountains was cancelled around 530 PM MDT as
thunderstorms moved off to the northeast. Our other Flash Flood
Watch for eastern Oregon expires at 8 PM PDT as radar showed
showers and thunderstorms finally decreasing there. Earlier
this evening one thunderstorm in southern Malheur County had
one-inch diameter radar-estimed hail. A gust front moved out
ahead of the Oregon storms into the Boise metro around 745 PM
MDT with gusts to 35 mph from the northwest but winds have
since decreased. By midnight MDT all showers, storms, and
gusty winds should be done, except in Valley County/ID where
light rain showers may continue until sunrise.

Cool weather will continue Saturday under mostly sunny skies,
but rapid warming will follow Sunday through Tuesday.  High
temps Tuesday will again be 100 to 105 degrees in the lower
southern valleys. Another cool-down is forecast for Wednesday
and Thursday, but not as cool as it was today.

&&

.AVIATION...Generally VFR. Isolated thunderstorms in southeast
Oregon this evening. Thunderstorms capable of producing heavy
rain, hail, 40 kt wind gusts, and MVFR/IFR conditions. Mountains
obscured in precipitation. Showers and thunderstorms ending by
Sat/07z. Surface winds outside of storms: W-NW 5-15 kt with
gusts to 25 kt in the Snake Plain. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL:
S-SW 15-30 kt.

KBOI...Mostly VFR. A 15% chance of showers and thunderstorms
through Sat/06Z, then clearing. Outflows from distant storms
may reach KBOI through midnight producing gusts up to 30 kt.
Mostly clear skies. Surface winds outside of thunderstorms:
NW 10-15 kt.

Sunday Outlook...Generally VFR. A 15-25% chance of showers
and thunderstorms Saturday morning in W-central Idaho
mountains, then clearing through Sunday. Surface winds
variable or NW 5-15 kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...Instability and
moisture aided by a potent short wave trough will continue to
bring a risk for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding
through this evening. The threat from thunderstorms includes
large hail (up to 1.5 inches) and damaging winds (up to 60 mph)
with the strongest storms, although the coverage of these
intense storms is isolated (less than 15 percent). The risk
of severe storms includes the Treasure Valley through mid-
afternoon. There is also a marginal risk of heavy rainfall
causing flash flooding, especially on burn scars. A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect for SE Oregon and central Idaho through
this evening. The showers and thunderstorms will end by late
this evening, but there is a slight chance (less than 20
percent) that it will linger across the far north through
Saturday as the system moves through to our north. Westerly
flow aloft will bring dry and stable conditions on Sunday.

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Models continue to remain
in good agreement of a ridge building in over our area early
this next week. This building ridge will be aided by a closed
upper-level low off the coast of California. With southerly
flow, temperatures will increase to right around 10 degrees
above normal. Monsoonal moisture and the closed low embedding
itself in transient flow aloft may allow for showers/thunderstorms
mid-week. Uncertainty still remains in how this breakdown will
unfold, so have opted to forgo increased precipitation/thunder
chances for now. However, it is something to keep an eye on as
it draws closer.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JDS
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....NF