110
FXUS65 KBOI 200256
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
856 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.DISCUSSION...A weak cold front is moving through south-central
Idaho this evening, bringing minimal impacts. Most of the
precipitation has fallen as virga, with only isolated wind gusts
up to 40 MPH. Skies will clear overnight ahead of the next
approaching upper-level trough.

Looking ahead to Sunday afternoon and evening, conditions
appear favorable for stronger thunderstorms developing ahead of
this next, slightly stronger system. This trough is associated
with increased mid-level moisture and better dynamics. The most
favorable area for thunderstorm development (30% chance) appears
to be along the Idaho-Nevada border into the Western Magic
Valley, where 06 km shear values reach 50 kts and CAPE values
near 300 J/kg. The strongest storms in this area could produce
brief gusty winds and small hail.

Recent trends in high-resolution guidance suggest that showers
and thunderstorms may develop farther north, into the Treasure
Valley and Malheur County, late Sunday evening ahead of the
trough axis. While thunderstorms are already in the forecast for
south-central Idaho on Sunday, coverage may need to be expanded
northward if this trend continues. No forecast updates are
needed at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR and mostly clear overnight. On Sunday afternoon and
evening, scattered showers will develop mainly over the West-Central
ID Mountains and SW Highlands, with isolated thunderstorms also
developing near the NV border and in the Magic Valley. Showers and
thunderstorms may produce MVFR conditions with VFR conditions
elsewhere. Mountains obscured in precipitation. Snow levels 5500-
6500 ft MSL. Surface winds: variable less than 10 kt overnight,
becoming W-NW 5-15 kt Sunday afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft: W-NW
15-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds variable less than 10 kt, becoming NW 7-12
kt Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...A cold front will
continue to work its way southeast through the area this
afternoon and into the evening. Light showers are expected to
accompany the front in the higher terrain of the north, but no
significant precipitation is forecast. The front, and its
associated clouds, will move east of the area overnight. An
upper level trough, bringing another cold front, will arrive
late tomorrow. This one has the potential to bring showers to
the higher terrain in both the north and south, along with a
slight chance of thunderstorms generally from Owyhee County
east through the western Magic Valley and even on the Camas
Prairie. This cold front will be stronger than today`s, and
after seeing high temperatures remain about the same from today
into Sunday, there will be about 5 degrees of cooling Monday.The
chance of showers decreases Monday night, but doesn`t go away
completely. Breezy northwest winds will develop late Sunday
afternoon and last into Sunday evening. Monday afternoon they
will develop again, especially southeast and east of Boise.
Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph, with gusts 35 to 40 mph, are
likely. These numbers do not rise up to advisory level, but it
will certainly be a breezy and cool spring day.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Seasonable conditions are
anticipated for Tuesday through Thursday as dry northwest flow is in
place over the region. There is good model consensus that a deep
trough of low pressure will impact the region by late week and into
the first part of next weekend. The details of low track and
precipitation chances are uncertain with this next system, but
nearly 100% of ensemble runs indicate some variation of a trough
over the west during that period. This favors unsettled conditions
with the threat of precipitation and below normal temperatures.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....ST
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....MC