479
FXUS65 KBOI 041928
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
128 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...Instability and
moisture aided by a potent short wave trough will continue to
bring a risk for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding
through this evening. The threat from thunderstorms include
large hail (up to 1.5 inches) and damaging winds (up to 60 mph)
with the strongest storms, although the coverage of these
intense storms is isolated (less than 15 percent). The risk of
severe storms includes the Treasure Valley through mid-
afternoon. There is also a marginal risk of heavy rainfall
causing flash flooding, especially on burn scars. A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect for SE Oregon and central Idaho through
this evening. The showers and thunderstorms end by late this
evening, but there is a slight chance (less than 20 percent)
that it lingers across the far north through Saturday as the
system moves through to our north. Westerly flow aloft brings
dry and stable conditions on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Models continue to remain
in good agreement of a ridge building in over our area early
this next week. This building ridge will be aided by a closed of
upper-level low off the coast of California. With southerly
flow, temperatures will increase to right around 10 degrees
above normal. Monsoonal moisture and the closed low embedding
itself in transient flow aloft may allow for
showers/thunderstorms mid-week. Uncertainty still remains in how
this breakdown unfolds, so have opted to forego increased
precipitation/thunder chances for now. However, it is something
to keep an eye on as it draws closer.

&&

.AVIATION...Generally VFR. Thunderstorms in eastern Oregon
spreading into SW Idaho. Thunderstorms capable of producing
heavy rain, hail, 50 kt wind gusts, and MVFR/IFR conditions.
Mtns obscured in precipitation. Showers and thunderstorms out of
our area by Sat/00z. Surface winds outside of storms: W-NW 5-15
kt with gusts to 23 kt in the Snake Plain. Winds aloft at 10kft
MSL: S-SW 15-30 kt.

KBOI...Mostly VFR. 30-40% chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon. Most likely time frame for thunderstorms at terminal
are between Fri/19z-Sat/00z. Hazards with thunderstorms include:
heavy rain, hail, wind gusts of 50 kt, and MVFR/IFR conditions.
Outflows may travel from distant storms. Surface winds outside
of thunder: NW 10-15 kt.

Weekend Outlook...Generally VFR. A 15-25% chance of showers and
thunderstorms Saturday morning in W-central Idaho mountains,
then clearing through Sunday. Surface winds variable or NW 5-15
kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening IDZ011-013.
OR...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ this evening
     ORZ061>063.
     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening ORZ670.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....NF
AVIATION.....NF