889
FXUS65 KBOI 141144
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
544 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fire weather risk continues due to thunderstorm activity
  today.

- Thunderstorms with heavy rain may also increase the risk for
  flash flooding, especially for recent burn scars today and
  Saturday.

- Temperatures near to slightly below normal through early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Sunday Night/...
Issued 230 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
The combination of dynamic, southwest flow aloft and presence
of monsoon moisture is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms early this morning. Storm activity is currently
favoring far east Oregon and portions of southwest/west-central
Idaho, with gusts up to 35 mph possible through morning. A brief
lull in activity is expected late morning, before resurgent
moisture and troughing allows the re-generation of storms
across northeast Oregon and west-central/south-central Idaho
late afternoon and evening. Latest guidance indicates localized
storm outflow gusts to 40-45 mph are possible with stronger
storms. Relatively high precipitable water values will also
support heavy rain potential under storm cores. These
thunderstorm hazards will create fire weather risks as well as
flash flooding concerns across steep terrain and local burn
scars.

A brief window of drier, more stable air will help diminish
storm activity Friday night, before the next shortwave trough
arrives Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase
once again Saturday afternoon, generally across southwest/central
Idaho and northeast Oregon. Gusty outflows and bursts of heavy
rainfall will continue to be the main storm threats. Temperatures
both Friday and Saturday will remain slightly below normal due
to cloud cover, precip, and the PNW trough influence.

Shower activity will decrease Sunday as high pressure builds
northwest into the forecast area throughout the day. Residual
moisture and daytime instability will be enough to keep a
slight chance of showers/thunderstorms over the higher terrain
Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will rise a few degrees from
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/...
Issued 230 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
A shortwave trough is expected to arrive from the northwest on
Monday, effectively squashing the upper ridge toward the
southeast. Enhanced lift with continued moisture will increase
shower and thunderstorm chances late Monday through Tuesday
across the southwest/central Idaho terrain. Further cooling can
be expected Tuesday as the trough makes its way east through
the Northern Rockies. The resultant west-northwest flow aloft
will then nudge the moisture out of the forecast area while
also promoting slightly cooler than normal temperatures late
Tuesday through Wednesday. Thereafter, latest model runs are
depicting the return of the upper level ridge across the West
by late in the week, which would promote warming and potentially
re-open the door for the next round of moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday through Saturday/...
Issued 540 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue this
morning, especially from the Treasure Valley up to KBKE/KMYL.
Outflow gusts up to 30 kt near thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will
re-develop in the afternoon with outflows to 25-40 kt, mainly
around KBKE/KMYL and the KTWF/KJER area. Localized MVFR/IFR and
mtn obscuration with rain shafts. Surface winds: variable 5-15
kt, with erratic gusts near storms. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL:
W-SW 5-15 kt.

KBOI...VFR with reduction in visibility/foothill obscuration
due to wildfire smoke. A 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms
through mid-morning. Surface winds: SE or variable 5-10 kt this
morning. Transitioning to NW-N in the late afternoon.

Weekend Outlook...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
continuing Saturday. Storms Saturday capable of heavy rain,
strong gusty outflows, and MVFR/IFR conditions. Showers taper
off Sunday. Surface winds: SW-SE 5-15 kt Saturday, then SW-NW
5-10 kt Sunday. Light and variable during overnights.


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Red Flag Warning until 6 AM MDT early this morning for
     IDZ400>403-420-421.
     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ423-424-
     426.
     Flash Flood Watch from noon MDT today through Saturday evening
     for IDZ013.
OR...Red Flag Warning until 5 AM PDT early this morning for
     ORZ670>672.
     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT /7 PM PDT/ this evening for
     ORZ673>675.
     Air Quality Alert until 1 PM MDT /noon PDT/ this afternoon for
     ORZ061-063-064.
&&

$$

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AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM....SH