Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
752 FXUS65 KBOI 080239 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 839 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 .DISCUSSION...No changes made to the forecast. Dry weather with a warming trend continues through Thursday night. Gusty winds this afternoon have mostly subsided, but gusts up to 18 mph are possible in portions of the Snake Plain tonight. Gusts continue each afternoon in the short term with a deep stalled low of the PacNW Coast. Wednesday/Tomorrow, temps rise about 5-10 degrees from Tuesday, and by Thursday afternoon will be over 10 degrees above normal. Friday is slightly colder as the upper low begins to move inland. This will increase clouds and bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday evening. && .AVIATION...VFR with clear skies. Surface winds E-SE 5-15 kt tonight, with gusts up to 20 kt along Snake Plain and highlands. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-SW 10-20 kt tonight and Wednesday morning. KBOI...VFR and clear. Surface winds: SE 5-12 kt, with gusts up to 20 kt possible overnight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...No significant changes from previous forecast. Continued dry and warming through Thursday night as upper winds gradually back from westerly to southerly, while a deepening upper low moves southward off the NW coast. High temps will rise 5 to 8 degrees Wednesday and another 3 to 6 degrees Thursday. Low temps will rise more slowly. By Friday morning the upper level low will be centered near 44/130 off the OR coast, close enough to increase clouds in Harney County. Surface winds in our CWA will continue from the southeast 5 to 15 mph during the nights, and 10 to 20 mph during the days, with afternoon gusts to 30 mph in the central Snake Plain and in Harney County/OR. LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...A cold, closed low off the PacNW Coast will move inland on Friday, supporting warm, breezy, southerly flow and above normal temperatures across the forecast area ahead of it. Precipitation chances will increase Friday, and especially Friday night, as the low pulls in ample Pacific moisture over the region. With pronounced southwest flow continuing, favored areas for upslope flow will receive the brunt of the moisture, such as the west-central/central Idaho and Boise mountains (60-80% chance). Considerable precipitation amounts are possible for the Friday night/early Saturday morning period, with a 50% chance of exceeding 0.25 inches across the central Idaho terrain. Snow levels will remain relatively high at this time, ranging at approximately 8k-9k feet MSL. As the low continues east Saturday, the cooler airmass is expected to move overhead and plunge max temperatures by 15 to 20 degrees for most locations. Winds will become gusty from the west/northwest Saturday behind the cold front, and precipitation chances will continue across the area. Snow levels are forecast to drop to approximately 6k feet MSL Saturday, then lower further on Sunday to around 5k feet MSL with persistent cold air advection. This would result in light snow amounts for high mountain valleys, such as the Long Valley, with several inches of snow accumulation across the higher elevations of NE Oregon and W-central portions of Idaho. Latest model runs start to diverge Sunday night into early next week, but are currently favoring cool, unsettled conditions with troughing dominating the Northwest U.S. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION.....JY SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....SH