700
FXUS65 KBOI 010850
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
250 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night...An upper level
ridge will move slowly east of the area this afternoon, allowing
our hottest day of the week. A Heat Advisory is in effect today
from 11 AM MDT to 8 PM MDT for the lower elevations and was not
changed in this forecast. The temperature forecast to today`s
highs has changed very little over the past day, with highs at
or above 100 degrees forecast over most areas of elevation below
around 3000 ft MSL. Showers and thunderstorms (15-30% chance)
are expected to form today into tonight, with gusts to 50 mph
possible. The best chance for strong gusts this afternoon is
across southern Twin Falls County and the western Magic Valley.
This evening, the best chance is across Harney County, possibly
getting up into Baker County as well.

Wednesday, even stronger storms are forecast, and SPC has put
roughly the NW half of the CWA into the "marginal" category.
Wind gusts to 60 mph are possible from mid-afternoon well into
the evening. Strong gusts are possible in the western Magic
Valley as well, even though that area is not presently covered
by the marginal risk. Temperatures will not be quite as hot
Wednesday, with only the lowest elevations along the Snake
River in the Upper Treasure Valley forecast to reach 100. Storms
are in the forecast again Thursday and Thursday night (20-60%
chance), mainly in the Idaho side, with gusts to 50 mph
possible.


.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Confidence has increased
in the long-term forecast with latest runs. Deterministic models
show a shortwave moving through the area with a threat of
scattered thunderstorms. The highest chances for precip with
this system are over the Idaho Central Mtns, including the Boise
and West Central mtns at about 50% chances. In Idaho lower
elevations and parts of SE and E Oregon Precipitation chances
are lower at about 20%. This shortwave seems to be the event
that the EC and GFS deterministic models are most excited about
in terms of thunderstorms relative to other days in the
forecast. Lightning and outflow winds will be the primary
hazards out of thunderstorms.

The forecast following Friday appears to quiet down, as a new CA low
develops and puts us under drier SW flow and warms temps through
Tuesday. We warm from near normal on Friday to about 10 degrees
above normal on Tuesday, with Snake Plain highs approaching 100
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Isolated shower activity has mostly
decreased, though a rogue 30 kt outflow or two is still possible
this morning. Additional isolated showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday across SE Oregon and higher terrain of SW Idaho. High
density altitude due to heat. Surface winds: NW-NE 5-15 kt. Winds
aloft at 10kft MSL: S-E 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. High density altitude due to heat. Surface winds:
variable, but generally SE less than 8 kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
     IDZ012-014-033.
OR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM MDT /10 AM PDT/ this morning to 8 PM
     MDT /7 PM PDT/ this evening ORZ064.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....MC
AVIATION.....JM