987
FXUS65 KBOI 160833
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
233 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms today and Friday,
  mainly across southwest/central Idaho and far east Oregon.

- Some thunderstorms may become strong to severe today, capable
  of gusty outflow winds up to 60 mph, heavy rain, and hail.

- A marginal risk for excessive rainfall is forecast for Friday
  afternoon across central and south-central Idaho.

- Hot temperatures continue into early next week, with valley
  highs around 100 degrees; Hottest today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/...
The return of monsoon moisture today will ignite a new round of
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, this time
mainly across southwest and central Idaho and far east Oregon.
Storms will be capable of strong to severe outflow winds to
40-60 mph, brief heavy rainfall, and small hail. Higher terrain
will be the most susceptible to impacts from rainfall,
especially if the rain shafts pass over steep terrain and/or
newer burn scars. In addition to storms, the strong upper high
to the east will build further into the area today, leading to
several degrees of warming across the area. Temperatures will
peak in the upper 90s to 103 for the Treasure Valley and Weiser
Basin, and a Heat Advisory is in effect due to moderate/major
Heat Risk. Shower and thunderstorm chances will re-develop
Friday afternoon, heavily focused on central and south-central
Idaho terrain. A marginal risk of excessive rainfall is
forecast over this area, once again yielding a threat to steep
terrain and newer burn scars.

Heat will continue over the weekend, with slightly drier
conditions expected as the bulk of the moisture shifts east. A
slight chance of storm activity remains across portions of
central/south-central Idaho Saturday afternoon, with the
majority of the activity remaining east of the forecast area.


&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...
Continued hot and mostly dry conditions are anticipated
Sunday, with shower/thunderstorm chances limited to south-
central Idaho. The influence of the central U.S. high pressure
will stay prevalent, keeping temperatures 5-10 degrees above
normal Sunday and into next week. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will increase once again Monday through Thursday with
continual pulses of monsoon moisture. Precipitable water values
will exceed 1.00" by early next week, allowing storms to become
heavy rain producers. Outflow winds will also remain a concern
as rain-induced cold pools will drive surface density gradients
due to surrounding heat. A pattern change is unlikely through
the week, with forecast probabilities maintaining hotter and
wetter than normal conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday through Friday/...
Issued 1227 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2026

Mainly VFR. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
returning over southwest/central ID and far east OR this
afternoon. Stronger storms capable of outflow winds to 35-50 kt,
heavy rain with vis reductions, and small hail. Mtn obscuration
in storms. High density altitude due to heat in the afternoon.
Surface winds outside of storms: variable 5-15 kt through
morning. Then, SW-SE 5-15 kt in the afternoon, with gusts to
20-25 kt in SE Oregon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: southerly 10
to 20 kt.

KBOI...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers/thunderstorms in the area
this afternoon, with best chance at terminal between Thu/21Z and
Fri/02Z. Stronger storms capable of outflow winds to 30-45 kt,
brief heavy rain with vis reductions, and small hail. High
density altitude due to heat in afternoon. Surface winds outside
of storms: SE-S 5-12 kt, with gusts up to 20 kt in the
afternoon.

Weekend Outlook...Mainly VFR. Showers/thunderstorms developing
Fri afternoon over central/south-central Idaho, capable of
strong outflow winds, heavy rain with vis reductions, and small
hail. Mtns obscured in precip. Slight chance of showers/thunderstorms
over same areas Saturday afternoon, then limited to south-
central ID Sunday afternoon. High density altitude due to heat.
Surface winds outside of storms: SW-NW 5-15 kt, afternoon gusts
15-25 kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     IDZ420-423-424-426.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     IDZ012-014-033.
OR...Heat Advisory from noon MDT /11 AM PDT/ today to 9 PM MDT /8
     PM PDT/ this evening for ORZ064.
&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM....SH
AVIATION.....SH