467
FXUS65 KBOI 101007
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
407 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued hot, dry, and smoky into Wednesday.

- Gradual cooling through the week.

- Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday and
  beyond, especially on the Idaho side.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday Night/...
Issued 221 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
Near zonal flow aloft today will begin to turn more
southwesterly as troughing deepens near the west coast.
Lingering monsoonal moisture today should remain just south and
east of our area. As such, any isolated showers/thunderstorms
this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon should also remain just
outside of our area. This will begin to change, however, come
Wednesday as the southwesterly flow allows for monsoonal
moisture to push back across the area. Come Wednesday afternoon,
this moisture will be playing with the Nevada border, which
will allow for isolated showers/thunderstorms to develop near
the Nevada border. With a dry boundary layer, gusty winds will
be the primary hazard out of storms that develop. This moisture
will continue to push north into our area beyond Wednesday.

Otherwise, the short-term period will continue to be hot,
smoky, and breezy. Low elevation temperatures will generally be
in the low to mid 90s with mountain valleys in the mid to high
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...
Issued 221 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
The long-term period is looking to be more active (especially
across southwest Idaho). Monsoonal moisture will continue to
push north through the end of the week, with LREF mean PWATs
increasing to around the 90th percentile of climatology. Come
thursday afternoon, chances of showers and thunderstorms will
overspread the majority of southwest Idaho and portions of
eastern Oregon, aided by the upper level trough and shortwave.
Model soundings indicate elevated instability continuing into
Friday morning, so some nocturnal thunderstorms can`t be ruled
out overnight Thursday. Showers and afternoon thunder will
continue into the weekend, especially over the Central Idaho
Mountains and near the Nevada border. With atmospheric moisture
increasing, heavy rain will become more of a threat, especially
over steep terrain and recently burned areas. Chances of showers
and thunder will begin to taper off over the weekend as the
shortwave exits our areas. This is barring higher terrain where
isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms will remain. With
general troughing continuing near the west coast, an active
pattern could continue beyond the weekend. Temperatures will be
warm through the extended, but generally near normal, even
leaning below normal by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday through Tuesday/...
Issued 407 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2026

Generally VFR with periods of MVFR conditions this morning,
mainly in E-Oregon. Wildfire smoke continuing to impact
visibility, with improvement this afternoon. Periods of mtn
obscuration. High density altitude due to heat this afternoon.
Surface winds: variable up to 10 kt this morning. Then W-NW
10-20 kt this afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL:

KBOI...VFR with smoke resulting in some visibility degradation
and foothill obscuration. Smoky conditions improving this
afternoon. Surface winds: light and variable this morning.
Becoming NW 8-12 kt with gusts to around 18 kt this afternoon.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Air Quality Alert until 1 PM MDT this afternoon for IDZ011>015-
     028-029-033.
OR...Air Quality Alert until 1 PM MDT /noon PDT/ this afternoon for
 ORZ061>064.
&&

$$

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AVIATION.....NF
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM....NF