933
FXUS65 KBOI 282006
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
206 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and dry.

- Isolated storms in the Magic Valley today and tomorrow.

- Smoke will limit high temperatures and continue degraded air
  quality.

- A dry cold front this weekend will bring critical fire weather
  with gusty winds and very dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/...
High pressure over the four corners will maintain warm and dry
southwesterly flow aloft. This will lead to a general warming
and drying trend heading into the weekend. Though, embedded
shortwaves and lingering smoke will complicate the forecast
some. Shortwaves in the flow from a stalled low off the British
Colombian coast will trigger afternoon isolated convection near
the Magic Valley today and tomorrow. Thunderstorms in this
region will be capable of producing outflow gusts up to 45 mph
and lightning. Most of the storm activity will be in the eastern
Magic Valley and south in the highlands, but traveling gusts
and distant lightning still pose a threat to the western valley.
Thursday evening, the shortwave position changes and central to
eastern Oregon is most favored, especially over higher terrain
and mountains. Coverage on Thursday will be very limited, with
only a 5% chance of precipitation in this area. Wildfire smoke
will be in the area through the forecast period. While it will
help cool temperatures by a few degrees each day, degraded air
quality will remain.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
While the four corners high begins to slip out of position
Friday and Saturday, warming and drying will continue. Both days
will be the hottest in the forecast, with temperatures in lower
elevations in the mid to upper 90s. Guidance indicates
temperatures around 100 degrees are possible if the smoke clears
some, although with southwest flow continuing this is unlikely.
The stalled British Colombian low begins to move inland Friday,
and is set to bring a dry cold front through the area Saturday
evening. With saturday being the hottest day, this combination
of heat, very dry conditions, and frontal gusty winds will lead
to critical fire weather across the area. Behind the cold front,
Sunday will be 5-10 degrees cooler than Saturday, but dry and
gusty conditions remain, leading to continued elevated fire
weather. Temperatures begin to climb again Monday and Tuesday as
high pressure rebuilds over Nevada. Southwest flow resumes the
transport of hot and dry air early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday through Wednesday/...
Issued 1148 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
Widespread wildfire smoke continues to reduce visibilities as
low as MVFR/IFR conditions throughout the area. While
visibilities may improve some in the late afternoon, smoke
ceilings may stay in place. Isolated thunderstorms will form
near the Magic Valley this afternoon, producing gusty winds.
Surface winds: SW- NW 5-15 kt. Valley gusts 20-25 kt in portions
of E-Oregon tonight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...Wildfire smoke resulting in MVFR/IFR visibility. Some
improvement expected this afternoon, before degrading again
during overnight/morning periods. Surface winds: becoming NW
6-12 kt this afternoon, and briefly variable before W-SW
tonight.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Air Quality Alert until 2 PM MDT Friday for IDZ011>015-028-029-
     033.
     Air Quality Alert until 1 PM MDT Wednesday for IDZ016-030.
OR...Air Quality Alert until 1 PM MDT /noon PDT/ Wednesday for
     ORZ061>064.
&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION.....JM