220
FXUS65 KBOI 031612
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
1012 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.DISCUSSION...Seeing some early morning thunderstorms across
northern Harney and Baker counties ahead of an upper trough
that`s approaching the Pac NW coast. Thunderstorm coverage will
increase across across higher terrain through the afternoon.
Flow aloft will direct storm to the north and east, pushing
activity into the Snake Plain in the late afternoon. The focus
of stronger storm development will be across e-central Oregon
(mostly north of Hwy 20) and southwest Idaho from the lower
Snake Plain into the w-central ID mtns. These storms will be
capable of producing wind gusts to 65 mph, hail and heavy rain.

Separately a combination of outflow winds and cold a frontal
passage will result in widespread 30-45 mph wind gusts with
locally stronger speeds possible (up to 55 mph) as it pushes
from SE Oregon into SW Idaho, to include the lower Treasure
Valley. These winds will also be accompanied by blowing dust and
lower visibility. Current timing has the strongest winds
between 8PM and Midnight MDT. Forecast updated to capture
thunderstorms this morning.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms for east Oregon and
central Idaho increasing today. Thunderstorms capable of 30-45
kt outflows, hail, and heavy rain resulting in localized MVFR to
LIFR conditions. Blowing dust possible with gusts. Mtns
obscured in precip, and in vicinity of wildfires. Surface winds:
variable 5-15 kt, except strong NW frontal winds this evening
(25-45 kt) and potential for LLWS in the evening. Winds aloft at
10kft MSL: S to SW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...Generally VFR. A 15% chance of PM showers and
thunderstorms, mainly between Mon/00z-04z. Storms in the
vicinity will be capable of 30-45 kt gusts, heavy rain, hail,
and blowing dust, which may degrade visibility. Surface winds:
SE or variable around 5 kt, then NW-N 5-15 kt late afternoon
outside of storm outflows. Cold front between 04/01z-05z, with
NW gusts to 25-40 kt possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...A trough off the
Pacific NW coast will move inland today. Expect increasing
clouds with showers and thunderstorms developing in eastern OR
by midday. Upper level dynamics are favorable for strong to
severe storms today along the cold front, especially in eastern
OR. Plenty of bulk shear and inverted-v profiles support severe
winds up to 65 mph and hail up to an inch. As the storms evolve
with the cold front, a cold pool will accelerate down the Snake
Basin, with wind gusts of 40-60 mph possible and blowing dust
along the front. Blowing dust will be a concern with these
winds as they track east through the Snake Plain. Winds behind
the front subside after midnight on Monday morning. The trough
moves overhead on Monday with cooler conditions. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms, will be confined north of a
line from Burns to Ontario to McCall, with dry and breezy
conditions south. The system moves east on Monday night, with
dry conditions on Tuesday. Temperatures will be around 2 to 4
degrees below normal Sunday, before lowering to around 5-10
degrees below normal on Monday, and warming again to around 2 to
4 degrees below normal Tuesday.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...On Wednesday, warmer
west-southwest flow aloft will develop ahead of the next
Pacific trough. Moisture will be limited this far south, keeping
precipitation chances low (10% or less) ahead of the trough on
Wednesday. The trough and cold front are forecast to arrive late
Wednesday through mid-Thursday, promoting cloud cover and a
slight chance (20%) of showers and thunderstorms for northeast
Oregon and west-central Idaho. Gusty west/northwest winds and
cooler max temps can be expected Thursday afternoon behind the
front. Drier, northwest flow aloft will follow for Friday
through the weekend, keeping temperatures a few degrees below
normal.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...Red Flag Warning from 3 PM MDT /2 PM PDT/ this afternoon to 9
     PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ this evening ORZ670-673>675.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.x.com/NWSBoise

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JM
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....SH