186
FXUS65 KBOI 122044
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
244 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...A deepening upper
level trough on the Washington coast will produce light rain in
eastern Oregon tonight through Monday as it moves southward
down the coast and becomes a deep low pressure area. The low
will turn inland across California Monday night, then across
Nevada Tuesday and into southeast Idaho Wednesday. That track
is favorable for rain in southern Idaho Tuesday night and
Wednesday. However, models differ on how far north the low will
be when it moves across Nevada, and that in turn will greatly
affect how much rain falls in our southern zones. We have
chosen an intermediate track among the various models for the
low center, and this will result in widespread light to
moderate rain (.20 to .40 inch) across southwest and south-
central Idaho.  Areas to the north and west of there will
have less rain (.10 to .20 inch in Idaho and less than .10
inch in Oregon. We also have a slight chance of thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon in our eastern-most Idaho zones. Temperatures
will be several degrees milder than today and snow levels will
be above 6000 feet MSL in all areas, so no significant snow is
expected.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...On Wednesday, the upper
low is forecast to move northeast across Nevada then across the
Central Rockies Wednesday night before reaching eastern Montana
on Thursday. Wrap-around moisture on the north side of the low
will bring widespread precipitation on Wednesday, especially
across the Idaho zones. Precipitation will diminish from west
to east Wednesday night and Thursday as the low pulls away from
the forecast area and drier NW flow settles in over the area
through Saturday. Models are in general agreement that the next
Pacific trough will impact the Pacific Northwest on Sunday but
much uncertainty in position/timing of the system exists.
Forecast confidence in the later periods of the long term
forecast remains low due to the extreme amount of energy coming
out of the western Pacific from typhoons moving into the jet
stream upstream of us.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR, except MVFR/IFR in scattered to numerous
rain and snow showers north of the Treasure Valley, near KBKE-KMYL
late this afternoon. Showers continuing tonight and spreading into
the Lower Treasure Valley and SE Oregon. Mountains obscured in
precipitation. Snow level 5500 to 6000 feet MSL. Surface winds:
SW-W 5-15 kt becoming E-SE tonight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL:
SW 15-25 kt becoming S overnight.

KBOI...VFR with showers in the vicinity through tonight. Surface
winds: SW-W 5-10 kt becoming E-SE around 5 kt this evening.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....TL
AVIATION.....TL