Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
687 FXUS65 KBOI 250849 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 249 AM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025 .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...An upper level low with several embedded smaller circulations continues along the west coast and across northern California and is depicted well in GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Mid-level moisture swirling around the north side of the upper low will be enough to produce isolated thunderstorms this afternoon across southern Oregon and in southern Idaho, mainly south of the Snake River, as daytime heating destabilizes the atmosphere. Dry air near the surface will help accelerate thunderstorm down drafts and outflows producing gusty winds up to around 50 mph near thunderstorm activity. The upper low will weaken as it moves northeastward through eastern Oregon and Idaho on Saturday, but there will still be enough moisture for another round of isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Drier air moves back into the area by Sunday. Warm temperatures will continue through the weekend with temperatures near normal today, then a slightly cooler by a couple of degrees on Saturday and Sunday. LONG TERM...Monday through Friday. Unsettled weather will continue next week, as model guidance remains in good agreement of the overlaying pattern. Southwesterly flow aloft will prevail through Friday as high pressure aloft builds in across the Great Plains. This moist southwesterly flow will help encourage convection each afternoon during peak heating, although it is much to early to iron out specific details. Early next week, an upper-level shortwave will move northeast off of the coast of California. As of now, it looks like this feature will stay west of Idaho, but bring enhanced chances of showers (15-30%) and thunder (15-20%) to our eastern Oregon zones Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Weather beyond Wednesday continues to be unsettled, with southwesterly flow aloft and precipitable water values around the 60-70th percentile come Thursday/Friday. Temperatures will be near normal on Monday, before warming to a few degrees above normal on Tuesday. Temperatures will continue to lean above normal before cooling back down to near normal Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Isolated showers/thunderstorms this afternoon, primarily in eastern Oregon, and along the NV border. Thunder capable of producing outflows of 45 kt, and localized areas of blowing dust reducing visibilities to MVFR conditions. Surface winds: Variable under 10 kt overnight, becoming SW-NW 5-15 kt by the afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW-NW 5-15 kt KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: Primarily E-SE under 10 kt overnight. Becoming NW 8-12 late morning with gusts up to 18 kt possible between Fri/20z and Sat/00z. Weekend Outlook...Mainly VFR, with a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day producing localized MVFR. Winds && .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday... && .AVIATION... KBOI... Weekend Outlook... generally NW 5-15 kt, except variable gusts to 50 kt near thunderstorms. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...JB LONG TERM....NF AVIATION.....NF