628
FXUS65 KBOI 232133
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
233 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...A shortwave is
moving across eastern OR this afternoon with scattered showers
developing along a cold front. Some isolated thunderstorms have
formed this afternoon with the cold air aloft and unstable
conditions. Some stronger showers may produce graupel and gusty
winds up to 40 mph this afternoon. Wrap around moisture with
the shortwave will keep snow showers going over the central ID
mountains into Sunday morning, then conditions dry out. Patchy
fog will form overnight, especially in the mountain valleys. The
trough will remain off the coast in the short term, and bring
southwest flow under a weak ridge on Sunday. Conditions will
generally be dry but shower chances increase on Monday afternoon
as the trough off the coast slowly moves inland. Temperatures
will be a few degrees above normal through the period.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...A broad cut off upper low
will move inland on Tuesday, weakening as it does so. On Tuesday,
this will support a 60-80% chance of precipitation in mountains, and
a 40-50% in lower elevations. Latest model runs are less confident
in precipitation on Wednesday, with only a 10-30% chance over
mountains in eastern areas through the morning. The total
rainfall/liquid equivalent is only about 0.1 inches in the
mountains, and a few hundredths in the lower elevations. Snow levels
are 3000-4000 ft MSL, with snowfall totals of an inch or two in the
mountains. Overall it should be a fairly standard event with minimal
impacts if the current forecast verifies.

Wednesday onwards, an extended period of drier weather starts as a
ridge of high pressure builds over the Pacific, keeping the storm
track to our northeast. Northwest flow aloft will allow a slight
cooling trend each day. Thanksgiving is looking drier and cool, with
temps just a couple of degrees below normal. Under the high
pressure, models are beginning to show the development of a low
level inversion, hinting at stagnant air conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR outside of precipitation. Isolated showers
this afternoon and evening, with a slight chance of thunderstorms
through 04Z. Thunderstorms may produce erratic gusts and graupel.
MVFR to IFR in precipitation. Mountains obscured in low
clouds/precipitation. Snow levels 5000 feet this afternoon, then
3000 feet MSL by Sun/16Z. Surface winds: SW 5-15 kt with gusts to 30
kt in SE OR and far SW ID, becoming variable this evening. Winds
aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 20-30 kt.

.KBOI...VFR with broken low-mid clouds. This afternoon and evening
isolated rain showers with a 15% chance of thunder. Environment will
support thunder, but an unorganized precip mode makes exact timing
difficult. Surface winds light NW, expected to switch to SE late
this evening.

SUNDAY OUTLOOK...VFR to MVFR in lingering mountain precipitation
with low clouds/patchy fog in valley locations and MVFR to IFR over
higher terrain with mountains obscured. Precipitation dissipating by
early afternoon. Surface winds will gradually shift to W-NW at 5-15
kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION.....JM