356
FXUS65 KBOI 030919
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
319 AM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night...Main upper trough
is still over the interior western US this morning but gradually
filling. After patchy morning valley fog, one last weak short
wave trough, over southern BC at 2 AM MDT, will enter the main
trough later today and produce scattered afternoon snow showers
in the Idaho mountains. This trough will also provide enough
cooling aloft for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon in
mountains on the Idaho side. Then clearing and cold tonight
under northerly flow aloft. A warming trend will begin Friday as
the main trough shifts eastward to the Rocky Mountains and our
area comes under the influence of a high amplitude upper ridge
off the west coast. The ridge will come inland Saturday and
Sunday bringing even warmer days along with mostly clear skies,
although nights will stay relatively cold. Northwest winds
today and Friday, generally 5 to 15 mph during the nights and
mornings, then 10 to 20 mph with afternoon gusts to 30 mph in
the central Snake Basin southward to the Nevada border.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...An amplified ridge will
continue Sunday, supporting relatively warm temperatures and dry
conditions for one more day. A shortwave trough will approach
eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho late Sunday, consequently
generating shower activity by Monday. Showers are more likely
to occur across northeast Oregon and west-central Idaho (50-70%
chance), with lower chances (25-40%) farther south near the NV
border. As the precip and cold front move through the area
Monday, snow levels will lower to 6000-7000 feet MSL. Snow
amounts should remain relatively minor due to the quick
progression of this trough, but surface winds could become
breezy. A much weaker shortwave will follow on Tuesday with
current model guidance keeping the moisture limited to the
northern areas. Tuesday snow levels are expected to lower
further to around 5000-6000 feet. Beyond Tuesday, dry, high
pressure will rebound across the western U.S. and warm
temperatures to approximately 10-15 degrees above normal by
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions. Scattered showers will
create periods of MVFR/IFR conditions after 03/18z, mainly
over the mountains. Stronger showers may produce lightning,
graupel, and outflow winds of around 30 kt. Snow levels
3500-4500 ft MSL. Brief low stratus and patchy valley fog
expected through 12z-16z over KMYL, KTWF, and KJER. Mountains
obscured at times. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt with gusts
20-25 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft: N-NW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...Mainly VFR. Scattered showers expected this afternoon
along Boise foothills, obscuring mountains at times. Surface
winds: NW 5-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt by afternoon.

Weekend Outlook...Lingering MVFR/IFR snow showers and low
clouds over s-central Idaho Friday. Otherwise, generally
VFR Friday through Sunday with building high pressure.
Surface winds: NW to N 5-15 kt Friday, becoming SW-NW 5-15
kt Saturday/Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A Flood Warning continues for the Silvies River
near Burns, OR, until further notice.  The river itself has
receded below flood stage but flooding continues nearby.
Snowmelt has decreased due to colder weather the last few days
but will increase again Sunday and Monday, possibly bringing
the Silvies above flood stage again on Monday. Minor cooling
is expected later Monday through Tuesday, but warmer weather
is forecast for several days beginning Wednesday, and increased
snowmelt will raise concern for more serious flooding on all
rivers at that time.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JY
AVIATION.....SH
HYDROLOGY....LC