003
FXUS65 KBOI 051554
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
954 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.DISCUSSION...Scattered low clouds are lingering near higher
elevations this morning, with clear skies in the Treasure
Valley. Temperatures will be cool again today, with breezy
northerly winds by the early afternoon. A few showers with a
stray thunderstorm could occur over the Boise Mountains and
Camas Prairie, but confidence is low. Snow levels will dip to
6000-7000 feet, but minimal accumulations are anticipated in any
higher elevation shower. Frost in elevations above about 4000
feet is likely overnight, but any lingering cloud cover could
keep temperatures elevated enough to avoid dipping below the
upper 30s. No updates necessary to forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR today. Isolated afternoon showers will
occur near KJER/KGNG, with a stray thunderstorm possible over
nearby high terrain. Snow levels 6000-7000 ft MSL. Mtns obscured
in low ceilings and precip.Patchy valley fog and scattered low
stratus clouds overnight. Surface winds: NW-N 5-15 kt, with
gusts near 25 kt through the Snake Plain. Winds aloft at 10 kft
MSL: N-NE 5-15 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: W-NW 5-9 kt, increasing to NW 8-12 kts
with gusts 15-20 kts this afternoon.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...
Residual moisture from the departing upper system remains in
place across the region, as evidenced by scattered cloud cover
per IR satellite imagery. Most shower activity is occurring
well to the north, associated with a weak upper impulse that
will move into central/southeast Idaho later today. This will
bring another round of diurnally enhanced convective showers to
the central Idaho mountains, along with a 10-20% chance of
isolated thunderstorms over the Boise Mountains. Otherwise,
winds will once again be breezy, especially across the Snake
Plain, but significantly weaker than Saturday, with gusts
generally staying under 25 mph. Cooler morning temperatures
will occur Monday and Tuesday, and result in some patchy frost
as temperatures approach the freezing mark, especially in higher
elevations of eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho. A modest
warming trend begins on Tuesday with temperatures warming around
5 degrees to near seasonal normals.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...
Broad southwesterly flow aloft will dominate mid-week and
maintain warm/slightly above-normal temperatures through Friday,
while conditions remain dry with typical afternoon breezes. By
the weekend, an offshore upper trough will deepen significantly,
and eventually accelerate inland - though the details of this
evolution are still uncertain. Moisture associated with what is
now Tropical Storm Priscilla off the coast of Mexico is also
forecast to advect north/northeastward ahead of the deepening
trough, though current forecast trajectories have the main plume
positioned east of our area. Regardless, a period of more active
and unsettled weather, along with a significant cooldown, still
appears likely in the Saturday-Sunday time frame and beyond.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.x.com/NWSBoise

DISCUSSION...SA
AVIATION.....SA
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM....JR