Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
527 FXUS65 KBOI 240812 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 212 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025 .SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night...Upper low over central California, left behind from the deep weekend trough that moved eastward across Montana Monday, will circulate enough mid-level moisture northward through Nevada today for a 15-30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in se Owyhee and sw Twin Falls Counties this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that form would be high-based with outflow wind gusts up to 35 mph, but little, if any, rain reaching the ground. Outflow winds should stay south of Twin Falls. Today will also be 8-12 degrees warmer than Monday as southwesterly flow aloft replaces Monday`s northwesterly flow. Wednesday should be another 3-6 degrees warmer as the next north Pacific upper trough moves closer to the coast and southwesterly flow aloft increases over our CWA. Ahead of the upper trough a surface cold front will move eastward through our CWA Thursday, bringing clouds, breezy west winds, and 2-4 degrees cooling, but little if any rain. Thursday night looks partly cloudy, and continued breezy in southern areas, as the upper trough comes inland. .LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...A broad upper trough over the northern intermountain region will keep temps near normal through Sunday. After that the trough will shift east leading to hot weather in our CWA Monday and Tuesday as an upper ridge builds northward through the Great Basin assisted by an upper low in the Pacific off southern California. High temps Tuesday already have a 45-60 percent chance of reaching 100F degrees in the Treasure Valley and southern Malheur County/OR. Models also show limited mid-level moisture moving northward from Nevada for a 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms in the hot, dry environment, a potentially dangerous fire weather situation. && .AVIATION...VFR. A 15-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms along the ID/NV border 21Z-24Z. Surface winds: Diurnal less than 10 kt, except thunderstorm outflow gusts to 30kt near the NV/ID border. Outflow winds should stay south of KTWF. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: Variable less than 6 kt, except NW up to 10kt this afternoon. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....LC AVIATION.....LC