882
FXUS65 KBOI 061513
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
913 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.DISCUSSION...No updates to the forecast. A weak wave will bring
increased cloud cover today, slightly reducing afternoon max
temps. This, combined with a slightly slower buildup of the high
pressure has slowed the peak warm days to Monday/Tuesday instead
of Sunday/Monday. Similarly the breakdown of the ridge has been
pushed back as well. The focus continues to be on the heat this
weekend and early next week, but the need for a product seems
minimal at this time. Winds remain typical through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. High clouds increasing from NW to SE, with some
virga possible over Baker County and SW Idaho this afternoon, then
south and east of KONO this evening. Surface winds: Variable under
10 kt through 18Z, then generally W-NW 5-12 kt through 07/03Z. Winds
aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 5-15 kt this afternoon.

KBOI...VFR. Variable around 5 kt this morning, becoming NW 5-10 kt
this afternoon.

Weekend Outlook...VFR. Increasing heat will result in high density
altitude, especially Sunday into Monday. Winds: W through N 5 to 15
kt both surface and aloft.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...A weak trough
passage today will be marked by a band of high clouds tracking
across the region from late morning through this evening.
Temperatures will tick up a couple of degrees from yesterday,
but in general this system and accompanying clouds will put a
pause on heating for today. Saturday will will see more
noticeable warming as high pressure aloft builds in from the
coast. Outside afternoon mountain cumulus, most sites see full
sun and temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal. Sunday adds
another 3 to 5 degrees from Saturday, putting lower elevations
into the mid-90s. The forecast keeps Sunday dry across all
sites, but will need to watch elevated moisture as surface
heating and instability would be enough to support isolated
mountain shower/storm development across the eastern Boise mtns
where we`re currently holding onto a 10% chance. For now the
deeper moisture remains locked up over NV-central Oregon through
Sunday. Northwest flow on the front side of the ridge will
translate to locally breezy conditions each afternoon.

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...The upper-level ridge will
hold on a little bit longer on Monday, keeping it warm and dry.
Beyond Monday the pattern switches to become unsettled. The
first ridge-busting shortwave will begin to move across our area
Monday night. This shortwave allows for a slight chance of
showers (15-30%) across most of Harney county and the southern
half of Malheur county late Monday night. As the wave continues
to propagate east, precipitation chances increase area-wide with
a 15-25% chance in lower elevations and 25-45% chance in higher
elevations on Tuesday afternoon. Deterministic and Ensemble
models are showing weak instability building in on Tuesday,
allowing for a 10-30% chance of thunderstorms area-wide (higher
chances seen in mountainous areas). Showers linger across higher
terrain through Wednesday, by Wednesday afternoon chances of
precipitation range from 20-40% across higher terrain and 15-25%
in the western Magic Valley. With weak instability building in
again, chances of thunder return Wednesday afternoon.
Deterministic and Ensemble models show a closed off upper-level
low deepening over the Gulf of Alaska. This feature and
embedded shortwaves allow for elevated precipitation chances
through Friday, mainly across higher elevations.

Believe it or not, temperatures actually trend downward Monday
through Friday (crazy I know). Temperatures will start at 15-20
degrees above normal on Monday, before gradually cooling to near
normal by Friday. Each day getting a few degrees cooler than the
last.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION.....SP
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....NF