815
FXUS65 KBOI 302023
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
223 PM MDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...Showers and
thunderstorms should begin to develop along the NV border
around 4 PM MDT then spread north this evening mainly in
Oregon (30-60% coverage). However, unlike previous nights
coverage (20-40%) should continue in Harney and Malheur
Counties even after midnight as a potent short trough
approaches from northern California. A 30-50% chance of
showers and storms will continue in eastern Oregon Thursday
as the trough moves in, with similar chances over higher
terrain in western Idaho Thursday afternoon. Maximum
development is expected Thursday evening in the northern
half of the CWA just ahead of the northward moving trough
axis. Hi-res models currently target southern Baker County
for greatest activity at that time. Unfortunately, that area
also includes the Durkee Fire burn scar (on the ne Malheur/
sw Baker County border) and will have to be watched for
possible flash flooding. Hi-res models also show a few
thunderstorms (10-20% chance) persisting overnight in
southern areas even after the main trough has passed north.
Friday should have fewer afternoon thunderstorms than
Thursday as another weaker short wave trough comes in
across Oregon.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...Friday`s trough
will still be over our CWA Saturday and thunderstorms may
again form Saturday afternoon, this time mainly in Idaho
although models also renew development in Baker County/OR.
Sunday looks mostly sunny until late afternoon when another
strong Pacific short wave trough moves onto the Oregon coast
and sets off more showers and thunderstorms in eastern Oregon
Sunday before sunset, then into western Idaho Sunday night.
That trough will still be in our CWA Monday morning with
showers and a chance of thunderstorms continuing in northern
areas through the day. Monday`s upper trough will also bring
much cooler air with high temps only in the 60s and 70s in
the north, to lower 80s in the southern valleys. Warming
and drying will follow the rest of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Showers/thunderstorms developing in E Oregon
and far SW Idaho after 21Z. Thunderstorms may produce outflow
winds to 40 kt that may travel far from the storms themselves,
and also heavy rain causing local MVFR conditions and mountain
obscuration. High density altitude this afternoon. Surface
winds outside of outflows: Generally N-NW 8-12 kt this
afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: N around 10 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Thunderstorm outflow winds from distant storms
up to 35 kt after Thu/02z. Otherwise light surface winds until
20Z, becoming NW 8-12 kt with gusts to 20 kt until Thu/01Z.
KBOI...VFR. Thunderstorm outflow winds from distant storms
up to 35 kt Thu/02z-08z. Otherwise NW winds 8-12 kt with gusts
to 20 kt until Thu/01Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday
     night IDZ400-420-423-424-426.
OR...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT Thursday ORZ670-672.
     Red Flag Warning from 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ this evening to
     midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ Thursday night ORZ673>675.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....LC
AVIATION.....LC