074
FXUS65 KBOI 150241
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
841 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025

.DISCUSSION...West or northwest winds, and showers (over higher
terrain in Idaho) were slowly decreasing this evening as the
main upper trough shifted out of Idaho and into Wyoming.
Thursday looks drier, slightly warmer, and less windy than
today as a weakening upper ridge passes through. Another round
of light rain showers (30 to 60% chance in the mountains and
15-30% chance in the valleys) is forecast Thursday night and
Friday morning, in both Oregon and Idaho, as the next north
Pacific trough comes inland. Current forecast is on track. No
updates.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MVFR conditions possible at KMYL Thursday
morning with low cloud ceilings. However, it was not consistent
across models, thus held off in TAFs. Rain/snow showers
possible over the central Idaho mountains through Thursday
afternoon. Precipitation chances return to SE OR late Thursday
afternoon. Mountain obscuration in low clouds/showers. Snow
levels: 5000-6500 feet MSL. Surface winds: W-NW 10-15 kt, KTWF
and KJER experiencing gusts to 25 kts Thursday morning and
afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: N to NW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Winds W to NW 3-8kt overnight then increasing to
W to NW 10 kt with gusts to 15-20 kts during the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...Showers associated
with an upper trough to our east will continue mainly over the
higher elevations of SW Idaho before diminishing late this
evening. There have been no lightning strikes yet, but there is
still a slight chance (less than 20 percent) of a thunderstorm
or two this evening. The trough moves east of the area tonight
and Thursday, followed by a weak upper ridge and drier conditions.
However, lingering moisture in central ID (east of McCall and
Idaho City) results in a 15-30 percent chance of afternoon
showers. A weak upper trough embedded in a northwest flow aloft
could bring another round of showers Thursday night and Friday
morning, once again favoring the higher elevations of SE Oregon
and SW Idaho. Precip amounts appear to be on the low side,
generally less than a tenth of an inch. Windy conditions,
especially in s-central Idaho, will improve later this evening.
Locally breezy conditions will continue, however, Thursday and
Friday afternoons. Temperatures remain below normal through the
period.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...A Pacific low
pressure system will bring ample moisture into the Pacific
Northwest this weekend. Widespread precipitation is expected
to arrive in east OR and southwest ID starting Saturday.
Instability will increase as the cold core low moves overhead,
leading to a threat of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and
evening. Latest model runs came out of agreement for Sunday,
which will affect the location of lingering precipitation.
These model discrepancies also reduce forecast confidence for
temperatures and the thunderstorm threat for Sunday. Overall,
total precipitation amounts for Sat/Sun may be notable, with
the potential for 0.75-1.00" closer to the NV border. Snow
levels will average 6500-7500 feet MSL during this time, and
therefore light snow accumulations can be expected for those
higher elevations. In addition to precip, windy conditions will
develop across the area, especially on Sunday for the western
Snake Plain and portions of east Oregon.

A flat, upper level ridge will move in from the east on Monday
and promote drier and warmer conditions. Winds will decrease
from Sunday, but should remain breezy through Monday evening.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be mostly dry with seasonable
temperatures expected.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....CH
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....SH