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FNUS74 KBMX 221840
FWSBMX

Spot Forecast for Cahaba River NWR Prescribed Fire...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
140 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

RH values drop into the 40 to 45 percent range Friday afternoon at
the Cahaba River burn site. 20ft winds will be fairly light
varying from northeasterly to northwesterly with occasional gusts
to 10 mph. Transport winds shift from northeasterly to
northwesterly around 8 mph. RH values rebound to 80 to 85 percent
Friday night. Light 20ft and transport winds shift from
northwesterly to easterly. For Saturday there will be a 30% chance
of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. RH values remain above 50
percent. 20ft winds shift from easterly to southerly but remain
light except near any thunderstorms. Transport winds vary from
southeasterly to southwesterly.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 7 mph shifting to the northwest 6 to
                    8 mph in the afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........6   7   7   7   12  14  12  11  12  8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............67  70  74  77  79  82  83  83  83  82
RH..............73  66  57  52  49  46  43  44  44  47
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  N
20 FT wind dir..030 040 030 010 350 340 330 330 330 340
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.6   10  8   8   8   8   8   10  10  8
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.6 2.2 3.0 3.5 4.2 4.4 4.8 4.9 4.3
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.7   7   6   7   7   6   6   8   8   8

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 63.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 3 to 7 mph shifting to the east 7 to 8
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........12  9   8   7   8   13  19  24  28  33  37  39
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10
Temp............82  80  75  72  70  69  67  66  65  65  64  64
RH..............47  56  66  71  73  75  76  78  78  78  78  80
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind dir..340 000 020 040 050 060 070 070 070 070 070 080
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.8   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   8
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.7   5   3   5   7   8   8   8   8   8   8   8

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of showers
                    in the afternoon. Chance of thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 30 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 12 mph shifting to the south 8
                    to 13 mph in the afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........40  42  46  50  54  54  54  54  54  53  53  54
Weather cov.....                            CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                        CHC CHC
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  10  30  30  30  30  30
Temp............63  63  67  70  74  77  79  82  83  83  84  83
RH..............82  84  77  71  66  63  60  56  56  55  55  58
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind dir..090 090 100 110 110 120 150 160 170 180 190 170
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.8   10  10  10  10  8   8   7   7   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.8 3.8 4.7 4.4 4.0 3.6 2.5
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   SW  SW  S
Transp wind spd.8   8   9   9   10  12  13  13  12  10  9   8

$$
Forecaster...JDavis
Requested by...Davis Goode
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2514520.0/BMX
.DELDT 05/22/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0