252
FXUS64 KBMX 172317
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
617 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 607 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025

 - Medium to high chances of heat indices reaching 105 degrees
   Monday through Wednesday for areas mainly along and west of
   I-65.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025

Scattered showers and storms are already developing this
afternoon, within an area of low-level confluence between north-
northwesterly and easterly low-level flow evident in the Cu field.
PWATs have also increased a little from yesterday, up to 1.78 in
on this morning`s BMX sounding. Northeast flow is in place aloft
between a large ridge across the south-central CONUS and a weak
trough over Georgia, with several weak vorticity maxima rotating
around the periphery of the ridge. Mid-level lapse rates are less
than 6 C/km, but MLCAPE values are around 2500 J/kg with DCAPE
values around 900-1000 J/kg. This will result in medium chances
for microbursts this afternoon, including gusty winds with any
storm and a low chance for an isolated severe storm. That could
increase if any storms can merge into clusters. Temperatures shot
up quickly this morning but will level off as convection develops.
Added a couple counties to today`s heat advisory earlier this
morning based on trends.

The mid-level ridge will begin to re-orient itself tomorrow. The
strongest part of the anticyclone will be over New Mexico and
Colorado, but a pretty stout ridge axis will extend eastward
across the Ohio Valley and Mid-South. A weakness will persist over
the Gulf and Florida with northeasterly to easterly flow aloft
between these two features. Expect less coverage of diurnal
convection tomorrow compared to today, but with PWATs being
elevated still expect at least isolated convection along the
periphery of the ridge, especially south of I-20. Heat will
continue to be a concern with temperatures in the middle 90s
though dew points will mix out some in the afternoon. Highest
probabilities for heat indices reaching/exceeding 105 degrees will
be across West Alabama, with more borderline probabilities towards
the I-65 corridor. Extended and expanded the heat advisory, as
while heat indices will be more borderline towards the Birmingham
metro, the experimental HeatRisk product includes these areas in
the Major category. Heat indices will be a bit lower further east
with easterly low-level flow.

32/JDavis

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025

Tuesday looks fairly similar to Monday with isolated convection
along the edge of the ridge axis, and hot conditions continuing.
Dew points will be bit lower with mixing, but given the cumulative
nature of the heat and little overnight relief will extend the
heat advisory into Tuesday, which is also supported by the
experimental HeatRisk product. The ridge axis to our north weakens
by Wednesday while a strong anticyclone remains in place centered
over the Four Corners through the extended period. Generally lower
heights remain across the eastern CONUS while Hurricane Erin lifts
northward off the East Coast. Some heat concerns linger into
Wednesday. After that, temperatures start trending downward and
rain chances start trending upward as a weak front stalls out to
our north.

32/JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025

Most of the showers and storms have dissipated with just some
lingering showers south of ASN and east of EET. We could
potentially still see a shower at MGM and AUO after 2 or 3z, but
probabilities are too low to mention at this time. Continued with
some brief sunrise fog at ASN and AUO. Also added in at EET.
Scattered cumulus again on Monday after 18z, with a few showers
and storms. Right now chances are below 20 percent so will leave
out of the TAFs for now.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been added at TCL until further notice due
to comms issues.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Minimum RH values will generally be in the 40 to 55 percent range
the next couple afternoons with showers and storms remaining
isolated to widely scattered. 20ft winds will remain light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  96  73  95 /  20  20  10  10
Anniston    72  94  73  93 /  20  20  10  20
Birmingham  74  95  75  95 /  20  20  10  10
Tuscaloosa  74  96  75  97 /  20  20  10  10
Calera      73  95  74  95 /  20  20  10  10
Auburn      73  93  73  92 /  10  20   0  20
Montgomery  73  96  74  95 /  20  20   0  10
Troy        72  93  73  93 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for the following counties:
Fayette-Greene-Lamar-Marion-Pickens-Sumter-Tuscaloosa-Walker.

Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for the
following counties: Bibb-Blount-Chilton-Dallas-Hale-Jefferson-
Marengo-Perry-Shelby-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION...16