711
FXUS64 KBMX 171114
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
614 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 614 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026

- Persistent Heat: Above normal temperatures continue into this
  weekend, with high temperatures reaching as high as the middle
  90s to near 100 degrees. Take extra precautions with any
  extended or strenuous outdoor activities.

- Rain Chances: Low-end rain chances spread from east to west over
  the weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Thursday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026

Water vapor imagery this evening reveals a stout upper level
ridge anchored across the southeastern US and an upper level low
churning just off the coast of Northern California. Increased
subsidence will help keep a lid on any convection through the
remainder of the work week. The pattern begins to change over the
weekend as an inverted trough takes shape across the Western
Atlantic. This feature will shift west across Florida, eventually
into the eastern Gulf, while nudging the upper ridge back to the
west. This will open the door to increased rain chances across
Central Alabama. Low-end rain chances will initially be confined
to our eastern areas but will gradually spread across the state as
a plume of deeper moisture spreads across the region.

Temperatures look to remain warm over the coming days with highs
in the mid to upper 90s. A few locations across the western half
of the area are likely to touch 100 degrees briefly on Friday and
Saturday. Slightly drier air in place across our western areas
will help keep heat indices below Heat Advisory criteria,
generally in the 100-104 degrees range. We will need to keep an
eye on the trends regarding the aforementioned plume of moisture.
If it arrives quicker, heat indices will be a tad higher.
Increased rain chances/cloud cover  next week will knock several
degrees off our highs with temps settling into the upper 80s to
mid 90s.

95/Castillo

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours across Central
AL. Winds are generally light to calm this morning, but will
increase to 6-8kts out of the east later this morning to early
afternoon before decreasing again after 01-02z this evening. High
pressure will continue to be in place across the region today
keeping cloud cover largely suppressed with just a few to
scattered high clouds during the day.

AMD NOT SKED included for  AUO due to missing observations.

25/Owen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns remain low at this time, although
compounding effects from intensifying drought conditions may
arise. Daily MinRH through the weekend is forecast to average
between 30 to 40%. Shower and thunderstorm chances are unlikely
through Friday, but low chances will return this weekend in the
eastern portions of Central Alabama and for all by early next
week. Winds will remain light through the next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     95  71  98  71 /   0   0  10  10
Anniston    93  69  96  70 /   0   0   0  10
Birmingham  94  73  97  74 /   0   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  97  72 100  72 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      94  70  97  72 /   0   0   0  10
Auburn      90  69  94  71 /   0   0  10  20
Montgomery  92  68  96  72 /   0   0   0  20
Troy        91  66  95  70 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...95/Castillo
AVIATION...25/Owen