Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
552 FXUS64 KBMX 132321 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 621 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 157 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2025 Rain chances will remain on the high end through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening, especially across the eastern half of Alabama. The remnant surface trough continues to move northward into southern portions of the state, noted by a distinct cyclonic swirl on radar between Evergreen and Greenville. Showers and storms have developed to the north of this feature, with brief heavy downpours for locations along the I-85 corridor. To the north, additional widespread showers with embedded storms are developing along the I-59 corridor. Most of this activity has been triggered from an old outflow boundary that has moved southward from early morning activity in northern Alabama and southern Tennessee. The mesoscale features, along with 500mb shortwave vorticity and perhaps even some orographic lift will continue to develop widespread rains that will be heavy at times. Due to the slow-moving and banding nature of the rainfall, we`ll have to monitor for the potential of localized flash flooding along and northeast of the Birmingham Metro. As a result, a Flood Watch has been issued for northeastern counties along the I-59 corridor, with a potential for expansion farther to the south toward the I-20 corridor. Showers and a few storms are expected to linger through the overnight as what`s left of the surface trough finally eject eastward into Georgia by Thursday morning. In the meantime, the 500mb ridge will begin to broaden and expand westward over the northern Gulf Coast by Thursday with a westerly flow developing over the atmospheric profile. With sufficient surface heating and instability through the afternoon, numerous showers and storms are expected to develop across Mississippi and western Alabama. On the synoptic level, a weak 500mb trough axis will be stretching southwest from the Ohio Valley, with shortwave disturbances moving across the Deep South within the westerly flow. I wouldn`t be surprised if a few storms that developed tomorrow were on the strong side, with a potential for downburst/microburst-type winds. With a little drier air aloft and 15 to 20 knots of shear, that may be just enough to keep our eyes on the radar. We`re seeing storms just like that currently over the Golden Triangle, north of the Highway 82 corridor in Mississippi. 56/GDG && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 157 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2025 Central Alabama will move into a fairly stagnant mid-level pattern by Friday and into the weekend as the ridge begins to build northward into the Great Plains states. Scattered, diurnally- driven summer convection is expected during the afternoon Friday and into the weekend as highs rise into the low and mid 90s. Heat Risk will move into the Moderate to High categories during this time, and may get close to Heat Advisory criteria at least for our far western counties. Early next week is still trending hotter and drier as the ridge builds to our north and drier northerly to northeasterly flow works into the Deep South. 56/GDG && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2025 As shower and thunderstorm coverage continues to decrease, low clouds should quickly begin to increase in their place. CIGs are expected to reach MVFR category by 14/03z, with additional drops into LIFR expected over subsequent hours. Thunderstorms are expected again tomorrow, with all terminals carrying PROB30s for TSRA past 14/18z. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Moist summertime conditions will continue through the week, and there are no fire weather concerns. Widespread shower and storm development will continue through this evening, before a gradual downward trend in rain chances begin on Thursday. 20-foot winds will be from the south to southeast through Wednesday before shifting to the west and southwest for Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 72 91 72 92 / 30 50 20 30 Anniston 72 89 72 90 / 40 50 20 40 Birmingham 74 91 73 92 / 30 60 20 40 Tuscaloosa 74 91 74 92 / 20 70 20 50 Calera 73 90 73 90 / 30 60 20 40 Auburn 73 89 73 89 / 50 40 20 40 Montgomery 74 92 74 93 / 30 50 20 40 Troy 73 90 72 92 / 30 50 20 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Thursday for the following counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Etowah-Jefferson-St. Clair. && $$ SHORT TERM...56 LONG TERM....56 AVIATION.../44/