461
FXUS64 KBMX 222307
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
607 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2025

A secondary push of cooler and drier air is filtering southward
across Central Alabama behind a dry surface front that is
currently near the I-85 corridor. Upper 70s are showing up at
Haleyville with dewpoints dropping down into the upper 50s.
Farther to the north in Nashville, mid 70s with dewpoints mixing
down into the upper 40s were observed. Winds will be a bit
blustery behind the front this afternoon, but most higher winds
will remain well off to the north and east. High temperatures are
on track to top out around 80 in Haleyville to near 90 in Eufaula.
Later this evening, we`ll see a shortwave disturbance sliding
southeastward within the northwest flow aloft. Even though
moisture is extremely limited, some CAMs are indicating the
potential of a few showers developing across far northern Alabama
during the overnight hours tonight. For now, I`ve kept the
forecast dry but wouldn`t rule out a few radar echoes showing up
across our far northern counties. We`ll see if any raindrops are
able to make it to the surface. Temperatures overnight will range
from the mid to upper 50s north to the lower 60s south. Another
dry day is on tap for Friday, as the surface front will stall out
over the region. Temperatures will remain a bit cooler to the
north in the upper 70s, while south of the front will be warmer
near 90 degrees.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2025

No changes needed with this long term forecast update. An
unsettled pattern continues over the weekend into next week.
The first looks to be a potential MCS coming through within the NW
flow aloft. SPC currently has a marginal risk out for us on
Saturday. Rain chances continue through the middle of next week
as a boundary stalls across the southeast. Rainfall amounts
through the week will generally range from 1-3". It`s worth noting
that a few of the more recent ensembles are hinting at low
chances for rainfall amounts over 3" for our northern area. We
will continue to monitor the trends over the coming days.

95/Castillo

Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2025

The extended period looks fairly active over the holiday weekend and
into next week. A stalled boundary will be in place over north
central Alabama Saturday morning, with afternoon highs in the low
70s from Cullman north into Tennessee and upper 70s to low 80s from
Birmingham and Jasper and Anniston south. An upper-level shortwave
will move into the region Saturday evening, with an MCS feature
coming ahead of the shortwave. This will most likely ride along the
boundary into the northern part of Central Alabama, bringing a risk
for damaging winds and hail. A marginal risk has been introduced for
much of the region for Saturday afternoon and evening.

Rain and thunderstorm chances remain elevated through Memorial Day
and beyond. Mid-range model guidance has shown further potential for
rounds of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms Sunday and
Monday. This will be better refined in a day or two as models come
into better range. High temperatures on Sunday and Monday will be in
the mid 80s to potentially low 90s across the south, which may
result in a low risk for heat-related issues with prolonged outdoor
activities over the holiday weekend. By mid-week, rain chances will
be lower and high temperatures will stay in the low to mid 80s.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2025

FR conditions will continue through the forecast period.
Northwesterly surface winds will prevail around 10 knots from the
northwest this afternoon, becoming calm or variable overnight.
There will be an increase in moisture overnight but not enough to
generate any mention of lower clouds or precipitation.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions through Friday, with min RH values dropping to the 30
to 45 percent range. Northwesterly winds less than 10 mph through
Friday. Rain and thunderstorm chances return Saturday through
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     55  79  56  78 /  10   0  20  40
Anniston    58  80  58  82 /  10   0  10  30
Birmingham  61  83  62  82 /  10   0  10  40
Tuscaloosa  62  84  64  85 /  10   0  10  40
Calera      61  83  63  85 /  10   0  10  30
Auburn      63  85  64  87 /   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  63  88  65  90 /   0   0   0  20
Troy        63  89  65  91 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...16