Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
505 FXUS64 KBMX 072342 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 542 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 523 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025 - Low to medium chances for fog with visibilities below one mile in east-central and southeastern portions of Central Alabama this evening. - Another round of light rain will move across all of Central Alabama overnight. - Temperatures into next weekend will again fall to below average, with an extended period of below freezing nights possible. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 540 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025 Drizzle continues across some of our southeastern counties, causing some reduced visibilities at times. Patchy fog with visibilities below one mile has been observed in Georgia, with low to medium chances that it makes it into our far east- central/southeastern counties. Not expecting any widespread dense fog, however. Next shortwave is apparent on radar/water vapor imagery across the ArkLaMiss. This will bring another round of light to moderate stratiform rain overnight, and PoPs have been increased. Northerly winds are expected behind the cold front tomorrow. Some of the abundant low-level moisture will likely get trapped under a low-level inversion, so wouldn`t be surprised if low clouds hang around longer tomorrow than some models are showing. Have therefore trended high temperatures downward for tomorrow. 32/JDavis Previous discussion: (This afternoon through next Friday) Issued at 1146 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2025 Very thick cloud cover remains draped across the region, and will likely remain in place for the next day or two. The bulk of the moisture in our airmass is contained in this shallow layer of clouds. Given it`s proximity to the surface, some showers and drizzle will be possible this afternoon, before more organized rain chances move in by tonight. This rain will be associated with the trough and cold front we`ve been mentioning for the last few days, with dry air moving quickly behind it. As such, rain chances will exit the forecast until closer to next weekend. Temperatures will slightly warm into the middle of the week, with Wednesday and Thursday still being our warmest days of this forecast period. However, this will all be ahead of a major pattern shift, setting the stage for perhaps our coldest stretch of temperatures yet. On Wednesday, a very deep low and trough will skirt the Great Lakes, bringing a frigid airmass with it. Over the next several days, a series of deep lows will follow similar paths, with each low dropping farther south than the other. This first system will work through our region on Thursday night, with the next big push over the Midwest taking place on Friday. Lows on Friday and Saturday will be well below freezing, with some locations falling into the teens. Given the depth of this cold air advection, afternoon highs on Saturday may not even climb out of the 40`s for some people. Now, with all that being said, this forecast is tied to the depth of the trough, and how far south it drops. So if one of these lows doesn`t deepen enough, or if one of them doesn`t materialize, then the trough would stay farther north, keeping temperatures "warmer." However, there is already incredible consistency here. So even if it doesn`t get as cold as advertised, we will still be looking at well below average temperatures across the region come this time next weekend. /44/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 540 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025 Cigs are currently MVFR to IFR with patchy drizzle present, especially near AUO resulting in occasional reduced visibilities. Cigs will quickly lower back down to IFR this evening, and LIFR in spots especially AUO. Another batch of light rain will move through overnight. For Monday, northerly winds will develop. Cigs will lift to MVFR by mid-morning, but MVFR cigs may persist much of the day especially at at the northern terminals. 32/JDavis && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain remains in the forecast through tonight, as drier conditions are anticipated through the middle of the week. With that being said, MinRH values will remain above 50% into next weekend, and given all the recent rainfall, fire weather concerns will remain little to none for the next six days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 40 49 26 53 / 80 0 0 0 Anniston 41 50 29 54 / 90 0 0 0 Birmingham 42 49 29 53 / 90 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 44 52 29 55 / 90 0 0 0 Calera 41 52 29 55 / 80 0 0 0 Auburn 43 54 34 53 / 70 0 0 0 Montgomery 44 56 31 55 / 70 0 0 0 Troy 45 55 31 55 / 70 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...32/JDavis AVIATION...32/JDavis