046
FXUS64 KBMX 050849
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
249 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New SHORT AND LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CST WED FEB 5 2025

Just as we have seen the last several mornings, GOES Nighttime
Microphysics imagery reveals a mixture of low level stratus and
patchy dense fog across Central Alabama. Locations across our
southeastern areas are reporting visibilities down around 1/4
mile. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through 9 AM for much
of Southern and South Central AL. To the north of the Advisory,
we will see a few locations fall to 1/4 mile but it is not as
likely to be widespread. We will monitor the trends to see if an
expansion of the Advisory is necessary.

Taking a look at water vapor imagery, we can see a mid level
ridge axis positioned across the southeast. At the surface, there
is a weak boundary stalled across the Tennessee Valley. Moisture
will continue to pool to the south of the boundary with PWATs
climbing to near 1.5-1.6". Meanwhile, several bouts of H85-H7
energy will rotate around the northern periphery of the ridge
axis. This will help provide a 30-70% chance of showers and storms
today with the best chances coming across our northern counties.
While instability will be lacking, there may be sufficient enough
shear to promote an isolated thunder storm or two. Activity will
gradually fizzle out during the evening hours. Similar to the last
few night, there are low to moderate chances of fog developing
across South-Central AL.

We continue with low to moderate (20-40%) chance for showers on
Thursday as the warm front changes course and makes another
southerly push. Instability will still be lacking with very little
upper level support so expecting mainly showers on Thursday. The
greatest chances will be north of our area where low level
moisture convergence will be maximized along the boundary.

95/Castillo

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CST WED FEB 5 2025

Thursday Night through Friday.

A potent trough will move east over the Northern Plains and Great
Lakes Thursday night into Friday while a zonal flow pattern
persists over the local area. A surface warm front will extend
from Northern Oklahoma east into Western Kentucky with a
stationary front just to our northeast along the southwest
periphery of the Mountains of East Tennessee and Northwest Georgia
due to surface high pressure wedging from the Northeast and Mid-
Atlantic Regions. The front will gradually advance southeast
toward the state early Friday morning as surface high pressure
move southeast off of the Mid-Atlantic Coastline. The front will
stall across the northern counties later in the day on Friday.

Expect mostly cloudy skies with scattered (40-60%) chances for
showers generally along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor
with isolated (10-30%) activity south toward the U.S. Highway 80
corridor Friday night then shifting to encompass much of the
eastern and central counties during the day Friday with isolated
(15-30%) chances for shower activity. Lows will range from the
lower 50s far northwest to around 60 south and central and highs
will range from the upper 60s far north to readings around 80
generally along and south of the U.S. Highway 80 corridor.

Friday Night through Saturday Night.

A zonal flow pattern persists over the local area while a
shortwave trough moves east over the Northern Plains toward the
Western Great Lakes through this time frame. Surface low pressure
will deepen and become more organized across Southeast Kansas on
Saturday while the front across our northern counties returns
northward as a warm front through the Tennessee Valley Region. The
storm system will quickly move toward the Northeast later in the
day through the evening hours with the associated cold front
advancing southeast again, extending roughly along the Interstate
59 corridor after midnight.

Partly cloudy skies are forecast to start the day Saturday,
followed by increasing clouds from the north towards midday with
scattered (30-60%) chances for showers across the northwest and
far northern counties by late afternoon with isolated (10-30%)
chances for showers from near the Interstate 20 corridor across
the central third of the state. Low temperatures will range from
the lower 50s far northeast to the lower 60s south and central
followed by highs from the lower 70s far east to readings around
80 across much of the southwest and south-central portions of the
area.

Sunday through Tuesday.

Broad troughing aloft will persist over much of the Great Lakes
and Northeast with the passage of another shortwave while an
additional shortwave digs over the Northern Rockies on Sunday. The
mid-level flow will gradually become more southwest with time as
global modeling continues to depict a mid to upper level
disturbance over the Western Gulf that will move northeast toward
the Northern Gulf Coast later in the day Sunday. The southwest
flow pattern aloft will persist into Monday and Tuesday with some
shortwave disturbances depicted moving toward the area from the
west on Monday into Tuesday. The surface cold front looks to push
southeast, clearing the forecast area late Sunday while a
reinforcing cold front approaches from the northwest early in the
day on Tuesday.

Clouds will increase areawide Sunday with isolated (15-40%)
chances for shower activity generally across the northern two-
thirds of the forecast area during the day and persisting into the
evening. More widespread isolated (15-40%) chances for shower
will exist on Monday with the highest chances across the northeast
third of the area. Shower chances are forecast to increase more
with isolated (15-35%) chances across the southern third of the
area with scattered (35-55%) chances across the northern and
central portions of the area during the day on Tuesday. Lows
Sunday will range from near 50 far northwest to readings in the
lower 60s south and central followed by high temperatures from the
lower 60s far northwest to readings around 80 far southeast. Lows
Monday morning will range from around 40 far northwest to
readings in the mid 50s southeast then high temperatures ranging
from the mid 50s northwest to the mid 70s southeast Monday
afternoon. Lows Tuesday will be from near 40 northwest to the
lower 50s southeast thereafter temperatures topping out in the mid
50s northwest to the mid 70s southeast Tuesday afternoon.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2025

VFR clouds are in place across central Alabama with spots of fog
reducing visibility to as low as 1/4 mile at TCL-MGM as of the 04z
hour. Ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR-IFR overnight with a
continued risk fog at TCL-MGM. Spells of showers are expected
Wednesday morning into early evening, mainly north of MGM.
Ceilings should be reduced for much of the day. Winds will be
light tonight and Wednesday.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Chances for rain will be greater (40-60%) generally near and
north of the Interstate 20 corridor today with lower (10-40%)
chances across the southern portion of the area. Shower activity
will persist across the northeast portion of the area overnight
with a medium (40-60%) chance of activity across the east-central
and northeast counties with lower chances (10-30) across much of
the rest of the area. Minimum relative humidity values will be in
the mid to upper 50 percent range across the far southeast with
higher values north and west followed by high humidity overnight
areawide with the minimums in the mid to upper 50 percent range on
Thursday afternoon across the southeast portion of the forecast
area.

&&

.CLIMATE....

Record high temperatures:

Wednesday, February 5...

Birmingham: 76
Montgomery: 82
Tuscaloosa: 81
Anniston:   74

Thursday, February 6...

Birmingham: 77
Montgomery: 82
Tuscaloosa: 80
Anniston:   76

Friday, February 7...

Birmingham: 79
Montgomery: 81
Tuscaloosa: 82
Anniston:   80

Saturday, February 8...

Birmingham: 83
Montgomery: 81
Tuscaloosa: 84
Anniston:   80

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  59  74  57 /  70  50  40  50
Anniston    72  59  74  58 /  70  50  30  50
Birmingham  72  60  74  60 /  60  40  40  50
Tuscaloosa  74  59  76  58 /  60  30  30  30
Calera      73  58  75  60 /  60  30  40  40
Auburn      73  59  74  60 /  30  30  30  20
Montgomery  76  59  77  62 /  20  20  40  20
Troy        76  59  77  60 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Dallas-Elmore-Greene-Hale-
Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pike-Russell-Sumter.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95/Castillo
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...89^GSatterwhite