337
FXUS64 KBMX 200457
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025

By today, the upper-level ridge that has had a firm grasp on the
region will finally begin to break down. This shift will be rather
slow, which will still allow for well above average temperatures
today. However, this breakdown in the ridge will coincide with a
weak trough moving into the Midwest. This will allow for the
stalled cold front to our west to finally begin making its way
into the region by Monday morning. Rain chances should increase
here, expanding east into the afternoon hours. This cold front
should become elongated and stall once more sometime during the
evening hours on Monday, allowing for continued rounds of showers
and thunderstorms into the long-term. Thankfully, severe weather
looks unlikely, with only general thunder anticipated.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025

This afternoon`s long-term update remains relatively unchanged
from overnight, as the best rain chances through the period will
be late Monday through Tuesday. The 590+ decameter ridge to our
southeast will gradually weaken and become centered over the
Bahamas. This will allow for just enough upper level support to
send a surface front into the Deep South with showers and storms
entering into northwest Alabama by Monday afternoon. As previously
mentioned, we could see a few storms on the strong side along and
north/west of the I-59 corridor Monday afternoon through Monday
evening as a 500mb vort max passes overhead. This vort max will be
wedged in between the very positively tilted upper trough and the
ridge east of Florida. Rain chances are expected to continue
through Tuesday as the surface front stalls just to the north and
west. With the focusing mechanism of the nearby front and
additional shortwave energy within the west-southwesterly flow
aloft, shower and storm coverage is expected to be fairly
widespread. With that being said, we`re not expecting an all day
washout but rather off and on showers and storms at times.

The remainder of the upcoming week will remain very warm and
perhaps unsettled at times as additional shortwave impulses
approach from the west on Wednesday and Thursday. Highs are being
advertised in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday through Friday.

56/GDG

Previous long-term discussion:
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025

A shortwave trough and associated surface low will lift
northeastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes Sunday night and
Monday. The trailing cold front will make it into northwest
Alabama Monday, stalling across North Alabama through Tuesday as
it becomes parallel to the deep layer flow, and eventually
dissipating. The front and associated increased moisture will
serve as a focus for showers and storms Monday through Tuesday.
Some strong storms will be possible on Monday with 0-6 km bulk
shear values around 25-30 kts and mid-level lapse rates around
6.5 C/km. This will be sufficient for some multicell/pulse storms
with small hail and gusty winds. Potential for an isolated severe
storm is non-zero, but risk of organized severe storms is low
given the modest shear, decreasing flow through the column during
the day on Monday, and weak forcing. Through the rest of the week,
generally weak quasi-zonal flow aloft will be in place across
Central Alabama as mid-level ridging weakens near the Bahamas.
Sufficient moisture and potential for MCVs/convectively enhanced
shortwaves coming out of the Southern Plains will result in
chances for showers and thunderstorms at times, in a May-like
pattern. Temperatures will remain above normal.

32/JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated for the entire TAF period.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions remain in place through the weekend. RHs this
afternoon will range from the 35-45% range with southerly 20ft
wind gusts around 15 MPH. Rain chances will increase by Monday
as a surface front moves into the region. This boundary will
stall across the area, keeping rain chances in the forecast
through the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     60  85  61  84 /   0   0   0  50
Anniston    63  85  61  83 /   0   0   0  30
Birmingham  65  85  63  83 /   0   0   0  60
Tuscaloosa  62  86  63  82 /   0   0  10  80
Calera      63  84  61  82 /   0   0   0  50
Auburn      63  82  61  82 /   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  62  85  61  86 /   0   0   0  20
Troy        60  85  59  85 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.../44/
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION.../44/