Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
248 FXUS64 KBMX 141049 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 549 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1233 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025 Sunny and unseasonably warm conditions are expected to continue today and tomorrow as the deep-layer ridge builds over the ArkLaTex. Weak height rises will occur today, allowing highs to reach about a degree or two warmer than yesterday with many locations warming into the mid 80s. North to northeasterly surface flow and clear skies will support a cool night with lows in the lower to mid 50s. Some of the cooler valley locations in our northeast may fall into the upper 40s shortly before sunrise. Upper 80s are expected on Wednesday as 1000-850mb thicknesses continue to rise. The ridge axis will shift slightly east as a deep upper-level trough begins to move towards the Four Corners. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1233 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025 Heights will begin falling on Thursday as the ridge axis is forced eastward by the deepening longwave trough axis over the Western CONUS. Dry and warm conditions are forecast through the remainder of the week as the ridge axis shifts east across Central Alabama. Temperatures Thursday through Saturday will range from the 80s during the day to 50s/60s at night. We finally get a shot at some rain this weekend as the trough axis ejects across the Plains, sending a cold front towards the Southeast. Low-level moisture will increase ahead of the front Saturday, but the greatest instability axis and thunderstorm activity is forecast to remain to our west during the day with severe storms possible over the Midsouth region. It does look like weak thermodynamic profiles and decreased forcing could be a hindrance to a continued severe threat for our forecast area Saturday night, but we will begin to narrow down the details later this week. Forecast rain amounts are ranging from about 1.25" northwest to less than 0.5" in the southeast, so not drought busting by any means, but we`ll take what we can get as ridging looks to build back in early next week. 86/Martin && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025 VFR conditions are anticipated for the entire TAF period. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue through Friday. Minimum RH values of 25-35 percent are expected each afternoon through Thursday before a moistening trend begins on Friday. 20 foot winds should remain below Red Flag criteria. Outdoor burning remains highly discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 83 52 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 82 54 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 83 56 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 86 55 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 86 55 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 83 58 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 86 56 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 83 57 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86 LONG TERM....86 AVIATION.../44/