918
FXUS64 KBMX 170643
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
143 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 107 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2025

 - There is a marginal risk of severe weather later this
   afternoon. Storms will be capable of producing damaging winds
   and large hail.


.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 106 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025

Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to push into the
region by daybreak, with most of this activity on the downward
trend. In fact, a mostly ragged line of thunderstorms is expected
by the mid-morning hours, as these storms become displaced from
the better forcing to the north. A conditional marginal risk
remains in place for this afternoon, as the airmass overhead is
still quite unstable. If storms are able to develop into the
afternoon and evening hours, they will be capable of damaging
winds and large hail. I say "if" because this activity will be
highly dependent on outflow boundaries leftover from this morning
convection.

Another Marginal risk is situated across the region for Sunday, as
a more organized bunch of thunderstorms pushes into the area.
However, just how organized this convection is remains to be seen,
with damaging winds and hail being the main threats once again.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 106 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025

The disturbed pattern will remain into the long-term, as multiple
disturbances clip the region in varying capacity through Monday.
However, the most organized system will begin to push into the
area by Tuesday Night, as a trough and cold front begin to move
into the Midwest. While the best forcing with this system will
remain in the Midwest, additional strong to severe thunderstorm
activity can not be ruled out given a somewhat unstable airmass.
Temperatures should fall behind this front into Wednesday, with
highs dropping upper-70s and 80s. However, they should really fall
into Thursday, with highs anticipated to range in the low to
upper-70s area wide.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025

Thunderstorm chances will continue to increase over the next few
hours, with most terminals along I-20 carrying TS by 17/10z. These
Thunderstorm chances will diminish past 17/14z, with most
terminals clearing out into VFR category around this time as well.
Additional thunderstorm chances will be possible tomorrow
afternoon, but confidence was night high enough to introduce them
in an FM groups at this time.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A disturbed pattern will enter back into the region, with shower
and thunderstorm chances remaining in the forecast through the
middle of the workweek. Given these increasing rain chances, MinRH
values will vary from day to day, but generally range between
40-60%.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     88  64  86  65 /  30  20  70  20
Anniston    86  67  86  67 /  50  20  60  10
Birmingham  87  68  87  69 /  40  20  60  20
Tuscaloosa  88  69  89  70 /  50  20  50  10
Calera      86  69  87  69 /  50  20  50  10
Auburn      85  69  87  69 /  40  20  40  10
Montgomery  88  69  91  69 /  40  20  30   0
Troy        90  69  91  67 /  30  20  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.../44/
LONG TERM..../44/
AVIATION.../44/