557
FXUS64 KBMX 232319
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
619 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 615 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025

- Low to medium chances of heat indices reaching 105 degrees in
  far northwestern portions of Central Alabama today.

- Medium to high chances of heat indices reaching 105 degrees and
  air temperatures exceeding 95 degrees Tuesday through Thursday,
  with the hottest conditions expected on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025

A large ridge remains centered over the East Coast promoting hot
summertime conditions across Central Alabama. Easterly flow aloft
will bring a slightly drier airmass to eastern portions of the area
today and coverage of showers and storms should be less than
previous days. Expect isolated to scattered showers and storms to
continue developing this afternoon, mainly across the west.
Dewpoints will remain in the lower to mid 70s which will result in
heat indices of 100-103F, and a Heat Advisory remains in effect
for a few of our counties in the northwest where heat indices may
reach 105F. Expect temperatures to trend even warmer as we progress
through the week.

Tuesday looks to feature a wider coverage of heat indices reaching
Advisory criteria at times during the afternoon as temperatures warm
into the mid 90s. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the entire
area with pockets of heat indices ranging from 103-105F. HREF
probabilities are indicating isolated areas with low to medium
chances of exceeding 105F heat index, but expect those occurrences
to be of short duration. Other than a few brief storms, most of the
area will be rain-free tomorrow as mean 1000-500mb RH continues to
decrease. Unfortunately for our dewpoints, much of the remaining
moisture will be found in the lower levels.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025

Heat Advisory conditions continue on Wednesday with a few locations
potentially reaching the upper 90s as the center of the ridge drifts
over the Tennessee Valley. Soils are still quite saturated from all
the rain we`ve had this month, so that will make conditions feel
even more miserable. Heat sensitive individuals will need to
continue to take extra precautions as much of the area will be
experiencing a Major heat risk. The extended forecast beyond
Wednesday will trend back towards a more active pattern with
guidance still pointing towards the development and approach of an
upper-level low from the Florida Atlantic coast to the Southeast
by the weekend. This may cause the ridge to break down over the
area, and any kind of upper-level support will combine with the
unstable airmass to produce elevated rain chances, especially
during the afternoon. Beyond midweek, I expect rain chances to
increase each day towards the weekend as the upper-level low moves
closer to the area.

86/Martin

Previous long-term discussion:
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025

Wednesday looks to be the warmest day as the ridge center will be
over North Alabama and Middle Tennessee. Highs will once again be
in the mid to upper 90s with low probabilities of air
temperatures hitting 100 degrees in a few spots. We will also see
the highest probabilities for heat indices exceeding 105 degrees
across much of Central Alabama. The ridge`s days will be numbered
however. This will be due to the combination of upstream blocking
breaking down allowing for quasi-zonal flow across the northern
tier. In addition, the southern end of a trough over the Atlantic
looks to close off into a retrograding upper low/tutt low. As this
upper low reaches the Florida coast, some showers and storms
return to the forecast as early as Wednesday afternoon and
evening, with increasing chances through the end of the week and
into next week as it drifts northwestward towards our area. This
will knock down temperatures and heat indices slightly, but the
heat indices will still be in the 100 to 105 range.

32/JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025

The afternoon CU field is beginning to wane, which will give way
for VFR conditions for most of the TAF period. With that being
said, some MVFR VIS is possible overnight at KBHM, KEET, and KASN
beginning at 24/08z. This VIS should recover by 24/15z, with VFR
conditions remaining for the rest of the TAF period.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Temperatures will trend warmer through mid week with rain chances
and RH values trending downward. By Wednesday, minimum RH values
trend down to the 40 to 50 percent range with lowest values in
the east. The trend begins to reverse starting Thursday on into
next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  96  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
Anniston    72  95  73  95 /  10   0   0  20
Birmingham  74  95  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  74  96  75  97 /   0  10   0  10
Calera      73  95  75  95 /   0   0   0  10
Auburn      74  96  76  95 /   0   0   0  20
Montgomery  73  96  74  97 /   0  10   0  20
Troy        71  96  74  97 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for the following
counties: Fayette-Lamar-Marion.

Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for the
following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-
Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-
Etowah-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-
Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....86
AVIATION.../44/