481
FXUS64 KBMX 200709
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
209 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 156 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2025

Weather across central Alabama through Thursday will continue to
be driven largely by typical summertime mesoscale processes, with
a diurnal cycle. Model blends suggest POPs that are right near or
a tad above climo normals, and I see no reason to deviate from
that. The large upper level ridge that had helped to bring
unusually hot/humid conditions to parts of our area the last
several days has started its slide to the west. The lower heights
are likely to lead to slightly lower highs in the short term as
well.

/61/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 156 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2025

After a continuation of summertime warmth and daily convection
the end of the week and over the weekend, the models continue to
advertise the approach and likely passage of a cold front early
next week. If this verifies (and confidence continues to increase
that it will), then we should see a noticeable decrease in
humidity levels along with at least a couple day stretch of max
temps at least 5-10 degrees lower than we`ve experienced lately.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2025

Will maintain a predominantly VFR forecast across central Alabama
TAF sites through the next 24 hours. Pretty much persistence, with
just a slight uptick in thunderstorm coverage expected today
compared to Tuesday. Which was handled with the PROB30 groups.
Otherwise, light winds and scattered afternoon CU.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been added at TCL until further notice due
to comms issues.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Generally light easterly to northeasterly winds are expected,
becoming more northerly as we go into the end of the work week.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected through the next
several days. No critical fire weather issues expected through
the weekend. For planning purposes, a cold front could bring some
much lower dewpoints and afternoon humidity levels into the area
early to middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     93  71  90  70 /  40  20  20  10
Anniston    92  71  90  70 /  40  20  20  10
Birmingham  94  73  90  72 /  40  20  20  10
Tuscaloosa  95  74  92  72 /  40  20  20  10
Calera      93  73  90  72 /  40  20  30  10
Auburn      90  72  91  72 /  40  10  30  20
Montgomery  94  74  93  73 /  30  20  40  20
Troy        92  72  92  72 /  30  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.../61/
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION.../61/