730
FXUS64 KBMX 221707
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1107 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 324 AM CST FRI NOV 22 2024

Key Message:

-Potential for a light freeze and frost to affect much of central
 Alabama Saturday morning.

The center of surface high pressure will drift from the central U.S.
to the Gulf Coast region over the course of today and tomorrow. Wind
gusts today could reach 25 mph at times. This breeze will ease near
sundown, becoming calm to very light overnight. Along with a clear
sky, this should allow for improved radiational cooling compared to
Friday morning. The current forecast reflects a better potential and
larger footprint of low temperatures in the lower 30s, perhaps very
isolated upper 20s that aren`t explicitly captured in the grids.
Freeze/frost alerts encompass all of central Alabama from 12 am to 8
am Saturday. A decent rebound into the upper 50s to lower 60s is
expected for the afternoon. Dry weather continues for Friday and
Saturday.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 324 AM CST FRI NOV 22 2024

One more chilly night is expected Saturday night and into Sunday
morning with good radiational cooling and mainly calm winds.
Cooler valley locations will likely drop down close to the
freezing mark or just below, with most other locations falling
into the lower and middle 30s with widespread frost once again.
The surface ridge moves off to the east on Sunday, with warm air
advection and southerly flow returning. Temperatures will warm
into the 60s on Sunday and 70s by Monday, along with increasing
low level moisture and dewpoints rising into the upper 50s and
lower 60s.

The next cold front is expected to arrive by Tuesday
with better agreement amongst guidance during this period with the
front moving into Central Alabama. With the base of the longwave
trough axis well to our north over the Great Lakes and surface low
moving into eastern Canada, the southward movement of the front is
expected to slow considerably. Rain showers will move in from the
northwest ahead of the front Monday night and into Tuesday
morning, before all rain diminishes completely by late Tuesday
afternoon. We`ll have to see how far south the front will make it
Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, as temperatures will be
greatly affected by the position of the front.

Guidance trends are hinting at the front returning back to the
north as a warm front by Thanksgiving Day as the next system takes
shape off to our west. Needless to say, we have lots of details
to still iron out in terms of how potent the approaching system
will be. However, it does appear that a strong upper level
southwesterly jet developing on Thanksgiving Day through Friday of
next week could lead to a fairly widespread rain event developing
over much of the Deep South. The depth of the warm sector would
then better indicate the chance for storms during that period.
More details to come over the coming days.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 AM CST FRI NOV 22 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Only a few high
clouds will be over the east-central northern terminals this
afternoon and tonight. A few high clouds will be over the northern
sites on Saturday. Low-level winds will be gusty from the
northwest today from 10-20 kts at times, with lighter winds
overnight from 3-6 kts. Low-level winds will be from the northwest
on Saturday from 4-8 kts.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain-free weather is expected through the weekend. Afternoon minimum
RHs are forecast to remain above critical thresholds, bottoming out
in the lower to middle 30s for some locations with 40s more common
across the region. Overnight recovery should involve RHs at or near
100% for several hours. 20-foot winds will be from northwest on
Friday and Saturday, becoming southerly on Sunday. The highest wind
speed will occur today, around 5-10 mph with gusts upwards of 25
mph, and much lighter, averaging less than 10 mph during the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     52  31  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    52  31  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  52  33  56  37 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  56  33  60  37 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      53  32  58  39 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      53  34  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  56  33  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        56  33  61  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for
the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-
Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-
Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-
Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for
the following counties: Barbour-Lee-Pike-Russell.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89^GSatterwhite
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...05