Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
195 FXUS64 KBMX 170651 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1251 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1239 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025 - A very dry airmass will promote an increased fire weather risk today as RH values drop into the 20-25% range this afternoon. Fortunately, light winds are expected. - A warming trend will occur this week with near-record highs expected from Tuesday through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Sunday) Issued at 1239 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025 High pressure will build over the area today in the wake of the cold front which is extending along the Gulf Coast. This will be the mildest day of the week with highs ranging from the upper 60s northwest to mid 70s southwest. The airmass will also be significantly drier today and RH values will fall into the 20-25% range across the area. Fortunately, winds will be very light which will help to minimize the fire risk, but extra caution should be exercised with any kind of burning. Moisture will rise on Tuesday as the front lifts back to our north in response to a shortwave ejecting across the Plains. This shortwave may produce a few showers across our northern counties early Wednesday morning. A warming trend will also occur from Tuesday through Thursday in which strong height rises will lead to near-record highs ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s. A deeper trough will eject across the Four Corners on Thursday with surface cyclogenesis occurring over the Central Plains on Friday. This system will advance towards the Ohio Valley on Saturday as an associated cold front moves into the Lower MS River Valley region and through Central Alabama over the weekend. There is still notable model uncertainty regarding the timing and speed of the front. However, some of our western counties may see rain as early as Friday afternoon as isentropic lift begins to increase, then rain chances will become more widespread by Friday night and Saturday along and ahead of the front. Overall, this system looks to be rather disorganized with forecast soundings indicating poor lapse rates and with pressure rises occurring as the front moves through the area, so severe weather is not expected at this time. Rain chances should begin to decrease by the beginning of next week as the front moves east of the area, and cooler air will arrive. 86/Martin && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025 High pressure over the area will promote VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. There will be a few passing high-level clouds. Otherwise, clear skies are expected. Winds will be light and variable today. 86/Martin && .FIRE WEATHER... A much drier airmass will arrive behind the front today with min RH dropping below critical thresholds for a few hours across much of the area this afternoon. This will contribute to a moderate risk of significant fire potential, but fortunately, winds are expected to remain well below Red Flag Advisory criteria during this time. Higher dewpoints will begin to return to the area on Tuesday, and we will see an improvement in min RHs with values ranging from 35-40% in the east and 45-50% in the west. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 68 41 76 54 / 0 0 0 20 Anniston 68 44 76 57 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 70 50 77 60 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 74 51 80 59 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 73 47 79 57 / 0 0 0 10 Auburn 71 47 77 56 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 74 47 80 57 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 74 47 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86/Martin AVIATION...86/Martin