153
FXUS64 KBMX 080521
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1221 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026

- Rain and Storms: Drier conditions through Wednesday, so most of
  the activity will be south of the area. By Thursday, rising
  humidity will lead to an increased chance for showers and
  storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tuesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026

There are some lingering showers and isolated storms in the far
southwest right now. These will dissipate or work into
Mississippi shortly after Midnight. The strong gradient from the
easterly wedge is forecast to keep the boundary layer mixed, with
sustained easterly winds of 5 to 10 mph. A few spots in the
higher elevations across the eastern and northeastern counties
may actually observe some wind gusts between 15 and 20 mph
overnight.

The easterly wedge will remain in place through Wednesday as the
500 mb ridge builds aloft. Rain chances will remain minimal
through Wednesday, generally limited to a 20-30% chance of
showers or storms along and south of I-85. While temperatures
will remain in the 90s, slightly drier air associated with the
easterly wedge will keep conditions below Heat Advisory criteria.
Forecast confidence is increasing regarding the persistence of
the ridge through Thursday, with southerly moisture returning to
the region on Friday. Meanwhile, a cold front moving toward the
Ohio Valley is expected to lose upper support and stall to our
northwest by Friday afternoon. This will lead to increased
diurnally-driven rain chances through the weekend, with highs
continuing in the low to mid 90s.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026

VFR conditions prevail through this TAF cycle. Light winds
tonight will increase out of the east-southeast through the day
today. Gusts from 15-20 knots are likely at times for all sites
but TCL. Winds become light and variable after 00Z.

Note: AMD NOT SKED at TCL due to missing observations.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Minimum RH values are expected to stay above 40% through next
week. While daily rain chances will remain low (10-20%) through
midweek, they will increase slightly thereafter. Fire weather
concerns remain low for now, but decreasing soil moisture will
elevate these risks by the end of the week if beneficial rainfall
remains scarce.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  68  93  69 /  10   0   0   0
Anniston    90  69  92  69 /  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  91  71  93  72 /  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  94  73  96  72 /  10  10   0   0
Calera      91  71  93  71 /  10   0   0   0
Auburn      89  71  90  72 /  10   0   0   0
Montgomery  94  73  95  72 /  10   0   0   0
Troy        93  71  93  71 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...95/Castillo