Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
555 FXUS64 KBMX 311118 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 618 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1256 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025 The pattern remains mostly unchanged today with broad 500mb ridging locked over the Desert Southwest and persistent troughing affecting the eastern CONUS. Northwest flow will continue across Central Alabama through the short term period with east-northeasterly flow at the surface. The easterly flow and a slight increase in moisture may be enough to support a few showers across our northeast this afternoon, mainly near higher terrain, but most locations will experience partly to mostly cloudy skies with temperatures generally in the upper 80s to near 90F. Rain chances will begin to increase slightly across the north on Monday as another shortwave begins to approach the region, but the higher, area-wide rain chances will hold off until the middle of the week. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1256 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025 Two shortwaves will pass through the area during the week with the first wave producing increasing rain chances from north to south on Tuesday night through Wednesday. The second, more organized, system and an associated cold front will track across the area in the Thursday to Friday timeframe. Moisture will be lacking behind the first shortwave, so not expecting much coverage of rain with the frontal passage. Dry, post-frontal air will surge southward by the weekend and afternoon dewpoints look to return to the 50s with humidity trending much lower. Temperatures will remain warm but below or near average with highs in the mid to upper 80s. 86/Martin && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025 Fog is affecting MGM this morning but should not persist past 13z. All other sites are VFR this morning and are expected to remain VFR through tonight. BHM and ASN may be susceptible to a shower or two this afternoon, but confidence and coverage is far too low to mention in TAF. 12 && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRH values will range from 40-45% in the northwest to 50-60% in the southeast on Sunday with no precipitation expected. Only minimal rain chances are expected for Monday and Tuesday across the northwest counties. Another disturbance will bring rain chances to the area by midweek. Wednesday should bring our highest chances for wetting rains this week with rainfree conditions returning heading into next weekend. Winds will remain relatively light from the east-northeast over the next couple of days. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 87 64 85 63 / 20 10 10 20 Anniston 86 64 83 62 / 20 10 10 10 Birmingham 88 68 85 65 / 20 10 10 10 Tuscaloosa 90 68 88 66 / 10 0 10 10 Calera 88 66 86 64 / 10 10 10 10 Auburn 85 65 83 62 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 87 66 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 85 65 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86 LONG TERM....86 AVIATION...12