991
FXUS64 KBMX 212315
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
515 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 505 PM CST THU NOV 21 2024

Northwest flow will prevail through the short term, bringing
plenty of dry and cool air to the state. Temperatures tonight will
be in the low to mid 30s for several hours around sunrise, with
temps climbing into the 40s by mid morning, and high temps in the
low to mid 50s by the afternoon. A Freeze Warning and a Frost
Advisory has been issued for Friday morning.

For winds, the pressure gradient will remain tight overnight with
winds between 6 and 10 mph overnight. Winds should pick up
briefly Friday morning, though the pressure gradient will begin
weakening as the low over the northeast continues to move east
through the afternoon. Gusts could be as high as 20-25 mph in the
morning.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CST THU NOV 21 2024

Key Message:

- A widespread frost/freeze is expected Saturday morning that will
  likely end the growing season in many locations.

The biggest change in the extended is the fact that the latest
guidance has come into more agreement. The consensus now keeps the
pattern more open. Rain is still likely in the extended. One front
on Tuesday and then the second on Thanksgiving Day and into the
evening hours. While we still wait on the exact details of the
extended, the open wave will limit thunder chances, but we will
need to get a little closer to get into the weeds. As for
guidance, the numbers came in closer to the operational model
blend and our ongoing forecast, so did not make any changes to
those.

16

Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024

Following a breezy and chilly day on Friday, the surface ridge is
expected to build into the Deep South by Friday night and
Saturday morning. Under mostly clear skies and light winds with
the ridge overhead, ideal radiational cooling will drop
temperatures down into the upper 20s to lower 30s in many
locations. Widespread frost is also expected, and therefore frost
& freeze products will be needed. The growing season will come to
an end across a vast majority of Central Alabama as a result.
Another frost will be likely once again on Sunday morning, but
otherwise we`ll see moderating temperatures through the weekend.
High temperatures will warm significantly by Monday and Tuesday as
warm air advection kicks in and a zonal flow pattern aloft sets
up over much of the CONUS. Global guidance then begins to diverge
after Tuesday of next week as the next system approaches from the
west by Thanksgiving. With the uncertainties, I`ve kept the
persistence forecast in place in terms of PoPs through Wednesday,
while forecast temperatures remain above NBM guidance and closer
to an operational model blend.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 505 PM CST THU NOV 21 2024

Northwest flow will continue to bring dry air and VFR conditions
will prevail through the TAF period. A tight pressure gradient
will cause higher wind speeds in the low to mid levels, so
included a brief mention of wind shear at all TAF sites except
KMGM overnight.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain-free weather is expected over the next few days with dry
northwest flow. Will will remain on the breezy side with gusts
upwards of 25 on Friday, and finally much lighter on Saturday.
Afternoon minimum RHs are forecast to be in the upper 30s to
lower 40s on Friday and 40s on Saturday. Overnight recovery
should include RHs in the 70 and 80 percent range tonight and at
or near 100% Friday and Saturday nights.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     32  54  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    33  53  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  34  53  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  35  56  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      36  55  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      36  54  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  36  57  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        36  56  34  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-
Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-
Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-
Pickens-Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa-
Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CST Friday for the following
counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Clay-Cleburne-Etowah-Fayette-
Lamar-Marion-Randolph-St. Clair-Talladega-Walker-Winston.

Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CST Friday for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-Coosa-
Dallas-Elmore-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Russell-Shelby-Sumter-Tallapoosa-
Tuscaloosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...24