960
FXUS64 KBMX 031850
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
150 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 149 PM CDT THU APR 3 2025

 - There is a 2 out of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms across the
   northwest and west portions of Central Alabama during the pre-
   dawn and into the daytime hours on Sunday. The threats include
   tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail.

-  Record-breaking high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s
   are expected each afternoon through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT THU APR 3 2025

Central Alabama remains on the very warm and dry side of the
significant weather that continues to evolve off to our west and
northwest. A 592 decameter ridge is holding firm across the
southwestern Atlantic, which is keeping the fire hose of moisture
and train of disturbances across eastern Texas all the way into
the Ohio River Valley. With the cap of warm air aloft due to the
upper level ridge, rain chances will remain minimal, aside for an
isolated shower or storm across our far western-most counties. A
few showers have actually developed over the last couple of hours
in these areas, and will add a slight chance PoP to the forecast
through this afternoon. Otherwise due to the tight surface
pressure gradient continuing, breezy southerly winds of 10 to
15mph with gusts up to 25mph can be expected. We`ll be very close
or will set additional record highs again today, as we top out
near or just above the 90 degree mark areawide. Winds will
diminish somewhat overnight, but the boundary layer should remain
mixed. We`ll only drop down into the upper 60s to lower 70s as
isentropic lift develops low stratus clouds after midnight.
Following mostly overcast conditions Friday morning, clouds are
forecast to mix out by the afternoon with breezy southerly winds
continuing. A slight chance of a few showers and perhaps a storm
will hold on in the far western counties, so almost a rinse and
repeat forecast from what we`re observing today as temperatures
rise once again into record-breaking territory Friday afternoon.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT THU APR 3 2025

The weather story for this long-term will remain the severe weather
chances for Saturday Night, lingering into Sunday afternoon. The
trough and cold front still look like they`ll begin shifting east
sometime during the day on Saturday, with the first round of
thunderstorms anticipated as early as 3AM Sunday. However, the
timing with this system is still leaving a lot in question, as the
goalposts remain quite large. Right now, there appears to be almost
a six hour spread on when this line could move in, so hopefully we
have a better picture on timing here in the next day or so.
Regardless, this line will be capable of producing damaging winds,
and isolated tornadoes.

It`s also looking like this line will be capable of very heavy
rainfall, with 2-4 inches of rain possible along and north of I-20
in a very short period of time. While we don`t anticipate any
prolonged flooding, isolated flash flooding will certainly be
possible given these heavier rainfall rates.

Thankfully, we`ll swing to the other end of the temperature spectrum
by the start of the new workweek. Well below average temperatures
are expected by Monday, with highs generally ranging in the low-60s,
and overnight lows ranging in the upper-30s and low-40s.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 PM CDT THU APR 3 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the afternoon and
into the evening hours tonight. Breezy southerly surface winds
prevailing 15 to 20 knots with gusts above 25 knots at times this
afternoon will diminish through the overnight hours. High
confidence exists in the development of at least MVFR stratus by
08z areawide, with a chance for some IFR stratus between 10z and
13z Friday morning. Ceilings are forecast to rise to VFR
conditions between 15 and 17z Friday for all terminals with breezy
southerly surface winds continuing.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRH values will continue to linger in the 40% range tomorrow and
Saturday, before climbing greatly with widespread rain chances into
Sunday. 2-4 inches of rainfall will be possible here, with a lot of
this rain being moderate to heavy at times. Expect winds to remain
steady from the south through Sunday, before swinging towards the NW
come Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 730 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025

Forecast high temperatures will continue to be near record values
from Thursday, April 3rd to Saturday, April 5th. The table below
shows current record high temperatures for each of those days.

                April 3     April 4     April 5

Anniston        89          86          88
Birmingham      87          88          88
Tuscaloosa      86          87          89
Montgomery      87          89          91

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  90  64  88 /   0   0   0  10
Anniston    67  90  65  87 /   0   0   0  10
Birmingham  70  90  67  88 /   0   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  71  90  67  86 /   0  10   0  30
Calera      70  90  66  85 /   0   0   0  10
Auburn      67  88  66  85 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  69  90  65  88 /   0   0   0  10
Troy        68  89  64  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM..../44/
AVIATION...56/GDG