045
FXUS64 KBMX 010655
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
155 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 142 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025

 - There is a Marginal (Level 1 out of 5) risk for severe storms
   this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Storms will
   be capable of producing strong wind gusts with isolated gusts
   up to 60 mph.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 142 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025

Upper-level forcing will increase quite a bit today as the base of a
longwave trough axis advances across the Southeast with a weak cold
front set to arrive during the day. Substantial moisture remains in
place with PWATs around 2" and dewpoints in the mid 70s. MUCAPE
should rise to around 3000-4000 J/kg before convective initiation
this afternoon as air temperatures warm into the mid to upper 80s.
Saturated forecast soundings indicate lower potential for
downbursts, but expect numerous to widespread showers and storms to
develop ahead of the front which could evolve into southeastward
moving line segments and clusters containing a risk for 30-40 mph
wind gusts and isolated instances of severe gusts. Slower moving
storms will be capable of producing 1-3 inches of rain in a
relatively short time frame, so localized flooding will be possible
as well, especially in urban areas.

The front will slowly progress through the area tonight and will
begin to slow down over the Gulf Coast with winds shifting to the
north across much of the area. Moisture content will decrease
rapidly from north to south during the day on Wednesday as dry air
advection increases downstream of a mid-level ridge axis over the
Plains. As such, we will finally see some end to the persistent and
above average rain chances for most of the area with only low
chances of seeing a shower or storm in our southeast. Expect more
sunshine across the north and west with temperatures warming into
the upper 80s to lower 90s.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 142 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025

We finally have a mentionable period of dry weather in the forecast
with a continental ridge expected to situate to our west through the
end of the week. Winds aloft will vary from northwest to northeast
providing dry air to the region, and temperatures will climb each
day with highs back in the low to mid 90s by Friday and Saturday.
Global models indicate a cutoff low will develop near the mid-
Atlantic coast over the weekend, but guidance defers on how that
feature will evolve early next week. For now, looks like we will
stay on the dry side of the low, so not expecting a large increase
in rain chances, but it may influence routine summertime PoPs next
week.

86/Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025

There are pockets of IFR ceilings out there currently and expect
this low-level cloud deck to expand over the next few hours in
addition to some patchy fog development. Ceilings and any reduced
visibilities should improve after sunrise, but widespread TSRA is
expected again this afternoon as a cold front moves into the area,
so expect periodic aviation impacts throughout this TAF cycle.
Surface winds will be from the southwest today around 5-6 kts with
higher gusts associated with thunderstorm activity.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Numerous shower and thunderstorm activity will occur again today
as a front moves into the area. Moisture content remains high with
min RH as high as 65-80%. Winds will be around 5 mph but higher
with gusts associated with thunderstorm activity. Drier conditions
will begin to return tomorrow once the front moves through the
area. Min RH will decrease to around 50% in the west with higher
moisture in the southeast, and slightly drier area-wide on
Thursday. There are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     88  69  89  66 /  80  50  10   0
Anniston    87  70  87  66 /  80  50  20   0
Birmingham  88  70  88  68 /  80  50  10   0
Tuscaloosa  89  72  90  69 /  70  40  10   0
Calera      87  71  89  68 /  80  50  10   0
Auburn      85  70  86  70 /  80  50  30   0
Montgomery  90  71  89  70 /  80  50  20   0
Troy        88  70  88  69 /  80  50  40   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86/Martin
LONG TERM....86/Martin
AVIATION...86/Martin