Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
839 FXUS64 KBMX 041841 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 141 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 140 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025 - Dry conditions continue today as drought continues to worsen across Central Alabama. - A weak disturbance in the Gulf will bring 20-30% rain chances Sunday through mid week, but chances of rainfall amounts exceeding 1 inch remain very low. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 140 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025 Dry and rain free conditions will continue through tonight and much of Sunday morning. High pressure is centered just off of the VA coast extending WSW-ward into E Conus with ERLY flow into AL today. Winds will continue to be a bit gusty at times with a tighter surface pressure gradients around the ridge. While there is a mix of clouds about, precip is not expected without any deep moisture or focus. Overnight lows may be 4-8 degrees milder tonight with winds expected to stay up some and generally not go light to calm tonight as what is normally the case. 20-30% pops finally make a return by Sunday afternoon as overall moisture begins to slowly increase. Although a few showers and tstorms may be noted (highest chances SRN counties), QPF amounts are not high and will not make much of a dent in the ongoing drought. We will have to just take every drop that we can get for now. 08 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 140 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025 No major changes were made in the extended forecast. Guidance continues with our pattern shift for Monday through mid week. We will have a low to moderate chance of diurnally induced showers and tstorms continuing as moisture gradually increases with a disorganized weak low pressure for Mon/Tue. A surface front is expected to move into the area on Wed and provide a little focus, but overall moisture will be limited and rainfall amounts are expected to be light. Temperatures will moderate upward for the first part of the week ahead of the front with E-ESE meager onshore flow. We can look forward to a slight cool down for next weekend behind the front. 08 Previous long-term discussion: (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1237 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025 As mentioned in the short term discussion, increased moisture from the tropical disturbance will lead to low rain chances on Monday. By Tuesday and Wednesday, a weak front will work into the area, maintaining 20-30% rain chances, mainly across northern and central counties. Ahead of the front, high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s in most areas Monday through Wednesday. A slight cool down is expected toward the end of the week, with upper 70s to low 80s Thursday and Friday. Overall, the dry period will remain in place, as the small rain chances throughout the forecast period will do little to halt emerging or worsening drought conditions across different parts of the region. With little relief in sight from a rainfall standpoint, drought and fire danger is likely to continue, if not worsen, through next week. 12 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025 VFR TAFs are expected this afternoon and tonight generally. MVFR cigs are expected to develop/move NWD toward sunrise. Have a mention for MGM/AUO starting 13z, but will not mention any further NWD for now. Thinking we should get enough mixing and slow down progression before any MVFR cigs get to the other sites. Tighter gradients today and Sunday will allow for a few gusts at times (15-22kt). Otherwise, sustained winds should be ERLY 6-12kts and may stay up a little overnight. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Central Alabama will remain rain free until Sunday. A 20-30% rain chance will be in the forecast for Sunday and Monday. RH values will drop into the 30s across our western areas this afternoon. A moderate risk of significant fire potential is outlooked today across the area, but min RHs and winds are not forecast to meet red flag criteria. Outdoor burning remains highly discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions. No wetting rainfall is expected in the coming days. Any amounts will be too light to mitigate the worsening drought. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 62 83 66 83 / 0 10 10 10 Anniston 65 81 67 81 / 0 20 10 10 Birmingham 67 83 69 84 / 0 20 10 20 Tuscaloosa 67 86 70 84 / 0 20 20 20 Calera 66 85 68 84 / 0 20 10 20 Auburn 67 80 67 82 / 0 30 10 10 Montgomery 69 83 69 85 / 10 20 20 20 Troy 67 81 67 84 / 10 40 20 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08/12 AVIATION...08