663
FXUS64 KBMX 300344
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1044 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1039 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026

- Heat: Moderate to major heat risk for southwestern areas
  Thursday, with heat indices near 105 degrees.

- Severe Weather: There is a 1 out of 5 risk for severe
  thunderstorms across the far southeastern portions of Central
  Alabama Thursday afternoon and evening. The main threat is
  damaging straight-line winds.

- Heavy Rain: Increasing confidence in elevated rain chances and
  potential for heavy rainfall this weekend as moisture pools
  ahead of an incoming boundary.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Thursday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026

Water vapor imagery this evening reveals a deep trough taking
hold across the eastern US while ridging continues to dominate
out west. A series of shortwaves will continue to rotate along
the periphery of the ridge, leading to low to moderate chances
for showers and storms Thursday and Friday. The greatest chances
daily will be to the south and west of a boundary lingering
across the state. Drier air moving into the region behind this
boundary will keep the northern half of the area dry as we wrap
up the work week. As we head into the weekend, an upper level
shortwave will drop into the Tennessee Valley while pushing
another boundary our way. This would warrant medium to high
chances for showers and storms through the weekend. Moisture
looks to pool ahead of this system with several members of the
LREF suggesting PWATs well over 2". Forecast soundings hint at a
fully saturated profile with a warm cloud up to 15-16kft. This
would suggest periods of heavy rainfall are likely. There are
signs of this shortwave being cut off across the southeast and
meandering through early next week. This would keep elevated rain
chances in our forecast. Details on rainfall amounts and
durations will be worked out in the coming days.

Thursday looks to be another fairly uncomfortable day with highs
in the low to mid 90s. Continued muggy conditions will warrant a
moderate to major heat risk across our southwestern areas with
heat indices around 105. Confidence is not quite as high in how
long we will see heat advisory criteria for as drier air
continues to work in. Therefore, we will hold off on a Heat
Advisory for our southwestern areas for now. We will knock off a
couple of degrees daily as we head into the weekend as the ridge
retreats back west. High temps look to settle into the 80s by
Saturday.

95/Castillo

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have developed over the past couple of
hours. Current activity is primarily impacting EET/MGM where a
TEMPO group has been introduced for TSRA through 02Z. All other
sites are carrying VCSH or VCTS to account for additional
isolated activity early this evening. VFR conditions will
prevail, outside of any convection, throughout this TAF cycle.
Light and variable winds tonight will become more northerly
through the day Thursday, increasing to 8-10 knots. Additional
thunderstorm activity is likely tomorrow afternoon for our
southern terminals. Therefore, I have introduced a PROB30 group
for AUO/MGM.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air will begin to move into our northern and eastern areas
on Thursday, leading to min RH values to around 40-45%. However,
winds will be light enough to negate any fire weather concerns.
Moisture increases over the weekend with min RH values generally
over 70%.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  92  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    70  91  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  73  93  71  93 /   0   0   0  20
Tuscaloosa  74  95  74  94 /  20  10  10  40
Calera      73  95  71  95 /  10  10   0  30
Auburn      74  91  72  91 /  10  10  10  10
Montgomery  74  94  73  94 /  30  40  20  40
Troy        73  94  72  93 /  30  40  30  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...95/Castillo
AVIATION...95/Castillo